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Senior Contributor
pritchh
Posts: 495
Registered: ‎10-18-2010
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Cattle cycle, where are we. Abusing my presence here to rant, same subject 10th time.

Repeating myself, IMO the cattle industry attracts disproportionally high mono-thinking. High feeding margins, gets ‘feedlots expanding, terrible headlines (mad.cow etc) gets ‘em overly depressed =ing early marketing. I have not modeled it but believe cow-calf ops are similar.  All an attraction to ”, thinking” specs, the mass error creates a big setup. Cattle being un-storable =s    term structure with large moves, even bigger than nominal Px changes . The bull move thru Apr, didn’t return much to long specs, mkt overly anticipated.

Cow-calf aspect takes longer but   by definition, as mkts doing a good job of discounting have smaller ranges, mkts that don’t? repeating my view,  low calf #s, low  cow population =  set-up  # s on feed will dwindle, heifer retention, mkt too used to high cow slaughter, adding marginally to beef supply and so on. Am I too anxious, it has already happened?

 

Acknowledgement, have been predicting this for 3-4 yrs. Am known to be WRONG!