"What about 2011? The analysis of analog years suggest that both Illinois and U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2011 will be below trend value due to unfavorable July weather, with the final magnitude of the shortfall to be influenced by August weather. Current expectations are that August temperatures will be above the 1975-2010 average. Precipitation is more difficult to forecast, but below average precipitation seems more likely than above average precipitation. Under those conditions, a U.S. average corn yield in the 150 to 154 bushel range and a U.S. average soybean yield in the 41 to 43 bushel range might be expected. The extremely high temperatures in July and widespread reports of corn pollination issues suggest that corn yields may be at more risk than indicated by the historical analysis.
Issued by Scott Irwin and Darrel Good Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics University of Illinois"