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Picturing ag in 2030

by Community Manager ‎12-11-2012 03:29 PM - edited ‎12-12-2012 07:00 AM

A few of us in the office were joking this morning about the futility of predicting the future. There’s an old saw I like, “Nothing is as dated as yesterday’s future.”

 

But, I was fascinated later in the day with word of a new report from the National Intelligence Council (NIC). The study, Global Trends 2030, outlines what the Council sees as megatrends (relative certainties) and game changers.

 

There are some major implications for agriculture in the megatrends forecast, including:

 

  • The majority of the globe’s population won’t be impoverished. There will be an expanding middle class in most countries.
  • Life expectancy will see “rapid extensions."
  • Urbanization will climb to nearly 60%.
  • Demand for food will rise by 35%.
  • Energy demand is expected to climb by 50%.
  • Severe water shortages will exist for nearly half the world’s population.
  • Asia will be set to surpass North America and Europe in global economic power, but there will be no single dominant force.

 

Of note in the “critical game changer” ideas from the NIC:

  • The U.S. has a good chance of becoming energy independent by 2030.
  • “Disruptive technologies” potentially will develop in 16 areas, including food- and water-related innovations.

Does any of this lead you to make a prediction about the farm of 2030? At the risk of looking like George Jetson, here are a few ideas off the top of my head:

 

  • Food export demand from Asia and other fast-growing parts of the world will drive ever more improvements in crop and livestock genetics.
  • More farmers, not fewer, will be needed in natural resource rich areas of the world, where soil and water advantages will drive intensive production and more niche markets will emerge.
  • The Corn Belt will move north, pushing wheat and other small grain production into other parts of the globe.
  • Farmers will connect across borders through new global organizations to cooperate in technology development, marketing, and new product creation.
  • Water conservation practices will rapidly improve, but many irrigated acres will return to dryland farming due to water shortages.
  • Biofuels production will kick into high gear, using more and more non-corn sources.
  • Some totally unforeseen innovation will occur with agricultural technology—something on par with space travel, invention of the Internet, and genetic engineering.

Thoughts? Predictions?

Comments
by on ‎12-12-2012 05:55 AM - last edited on ‎12-12-2012 07:01 AM by Community Manager

The NIC said :

  • Demand for food will rise by 35%.

 

  • Severe water shortages will exist for nearly half the world’s population

I say : Pioneer had better get on the stick with their drought corn .

by on ‎12-13-2012 09:08 PM

I don't believe most of the pie in the sky in those predictions. Especially the more middle class % of the population UNLESS the definition of middle class is only  defined by having more than 2 days food on hand.

 

The more biofuels is also pie in the sky unless there is more dung and wood burned and counted as biofuel.

 

As in any of the previous Golden times in history the good times only lasted until the population became bottom heavy with the least productive members out breeding the productive sector. We are closer to a period of "the dark ages" than of enlightenment and good times.

by on ‎12-26-2012 11:01 PM
The increased demand for food is interesting. I believe I read about a UN report about food demand requiring a doubling of food production by 2050. As for a prediction: robotics might play a bigger role in production. So will bio security. Just a guess but perhaps no surprise. Water demand may drive new technology discoveries.