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Senior Contributor
steeringwheelholder
Posts: 178
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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$10 corn. Write that down.

So who else has walked their cornfields extensively in the past week or so since it was finished pollenating?  Small ears and big ears that aborted the last 1/3 near the tip is what I am finding.  This was not the year for crop production to have a hiccup.  $10 corn is in our future.  Livestock guys better fill bins now!

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 772
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

I am really disappointed with my corn as well, but I'm not for sure if the system will tolerate $10 corn.  with oil under $95 and the stock market slipping, I guess time will tell.  The only thing that might happen is inflationary fears, and buy commodities comes back in style.  

Senior Contributor
steeringwheelholder
Posts: 178
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

Panic among the end users will do it when they realize and accept that there just is not enough corn for everone to get what they want.  I wonder if the USDA will listen to us this year?  We said last year "It ain't out there" and it took until November for them to acknowledge it.  Locally, here in IN, we look worse than last year.  Smaller ears and more ponds that were planted twice with no crop standing in them.  Hang on tight, we are gonna go for a ride without even leaving the desk chair!

Contributor
iowastateisgreat
Posts: 20
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

Corn yield estimates are coming down. But the price won't go to $10 as demand will fall off. E-plants will shut down before they pay $10 for corn. You need to look at more than the supply side to predict where prices will go. Its going to take oil prices going higher along with continued demand from China and the domestic livestock market. to even get to $8.

 

The combines are in the shop getting ready to roll in 5-6 weeks in this area. No signs of running out of corn here.

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animalfeeder
Posts: 16
Registered: ‎05-23-2011
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

There is no way corn will hit $10.00. Livestock/poultry will pull the plug way before that I say in the 7.50 to 8.50 area. Ethanol can't afford to pay 10.00 even with the subsidie and mandate. We go to 10.00 and you will see major demand destruction and you will be back to 3.00 next year beacause there will not be an buyers out there. 

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 772
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

The only place that might pay above $8 is China,,, I'm not saying that Corn will go to $10, I doubt if it will make a run back at $8, at least on the board, the futures market takes money to make that move and sense the public traders want to own cash, a "no risk" investment.   It will take a basis move to get to $8,  if exporters need the corn they'll have to pay for it.   we had $1 over in 96 maybe more then that, it was $5 here until the new corn started coming in.   But for those of us who forward contracted there will be some corn coming in at harvest to most likly cover exports at first.   

Senior Contributor
steeringwheelholder
Posts: 178
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

The local ethanol plant and elevators here (C IN) had a $.70 positive basis earlier this summer and had bids over a 3 day period that were $8+. $8.27 was the peak for cash corn. That is $1.73 away from $10. Last fall we were delighted to sell some corn off the combine as a spot bid of $5.10 before it really took off and started storing the rest That means we gained $3 in 9 months. You don't think it is possible to go another $2 in a years time? Never say never.
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 772
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

well i just saw the numbers from the USDA so maybe it its possible. 

 

 

Senior Contributor
steeringwheelholder
Posts: 178
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

Poof. Millions of bushels just disappeared. It may get here quicker than I thought unless the USDA flip flops in September. We are gonna catch $.75 before the weekend.
Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: $10 corn. Write that down.

If U.S. corn hits 10 bucks, this will put Chinese corn at roughly 13 bucks.  I'd venture to guess one of our largest creditors will be coming down hard on some of our policies.