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08-22-2012 11:13 AM - edited 08-22-2012 11:13 AM
Just posted a new story (full story and chart) with European technical analysis suggesting the prospect of $10 CBOT corn.
"Projected support at $7.00 is likely to cushion corrective bear waves, which would provide a convenient measured upside target of $10.00, should the $8.49 peak be subsequently broken," the report says.
"A large upside gap between $6.76 and $6.8525 will underpin projected support at $7.00, and only a sustained break below $6.76 would negate thoughts of reaching the psychologically-important $10.00 level."
Such charting hold any water? Thoughts?
08-22-2012 01:06 PM
Good point. Nothing in that story, though, about the beans, other than referencing that front-month soybean futures recorded a new all-time high on Tuesday. So, yes, this all looks pretty interesting as far as "uncharted levels," as you say. -- John
08-23-2012 05:33 AM
There is NO math to support $10 corn. None. The math supports $8 highs. An over-run because of the worst drought in almost 100 years, would next support trading at $9.50 for about 4 seconds and then back down to $6.50 in a few weeks. 9.50 is very important in wheat and soybeans as in 6.50, but $10 is important to nothing none of the time.
08-23-2012 07:13 AM
I'm hoping, not that I'm personally speculating that it might.
Given the fact that there haven't been any adults at this party for a long time, let's just let the kids really screw things up.
I'm hoping that final yield comes in a billion or so lower and the government does nothing to alter policy.
Then, like the story that Lincoln told, I'm just going to go get my brother 'cuz he's never seen a train wreck either.
08-23-2012 07:29 AM
I think it probably is going to $10 or above if da gubbmint doesn't intervene.
Gubbmint may open checkbook in response to squealing shoats but won't intervene on ethanol mandate before the election . Ergo.....
08-24-2012 05:17 AM
That is not true JR. As many might remeber, in Dec of 2005, (114 month low in corn), I wrote a note about how corn "should" trade at $6 in 2008. I mentioned for years that $6 should be the destination, just like I have been saying for the last 3 years that SX should trade at $18. Not there yet, but maybe tomorrow.
You are correct that $5 has no mathematical relevance for any market that I know of. But the math clearly supported $6 corn. When corn made the $8 high in 2008, vs. the expected $6, it shifts the math to a higher energy level. So, now, $8 is the real fundamental resistance, but with insane monetary policy, insane ethanol policy, and insane speculative trading limits, corn might (but I think not), but it might trade at $9.50 for a few seconds, but this MUST happen in the next 2 weeks, because the PARTY IS OVER. Just simply out of TIME.
Corn breaking $8 is very similar to wheat breaking the 10.60 expected high (expected in 2005). It broke it by $2.40 for a few weeks. Might be wise for corn farmes to review history of what happens next.
The devaluation of the dollar is ALREADY IN THE PRICE.....JR
08-24-2012 06:06 AM
Time I am confused what you are saying. Is 8.00 all the market can bear, According to the pig site Hormel net just increased 13% for the quarter. Ethanol is supposedly making money, and exports arestill ongoing. TSN is also according to Yahoo Finance loaded with cash and looking to buy anything. One thing I do agree with, this will be an auction of crops and in the end he owns or does not. That will be coming up quickly.I just think this auction will last a little longer than you say. Maybe as late as 83. Perhaps the last of the first week in Oct.