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06-28-2013 11:35 PM
Hey Wrestler, I don`t have a dog in this fight, I`m in a crappy area the RA guarantee of $5.65/bu on 80% of my APH is what I`ve resigned myself to and I consider myself fortunate. But we all have a opportunity to really learn something here, because one group is very wrong and the other group is very right. In `93 reality didn`t set in until November, now USDA is saying "2 billion bu carryover" I say bookmark this discussion and come back to it in December and see once and for all who`s right and who`s wrong. If there isn`t at least a obvious 1.5 billion bushel corn carryover in the January report I think the USDA reporting service is a joke and should be defunded.
06-29-2013 12:02 AM
i guess i'll back it up by pointing out why the acreage number is inaccurate; the number was obtained from surveys done 4 weeks ago, and included farmers' unplanted, projected acres. Quite a bit of rain fell and alot of those projected acres went unplanted. chirp, chirp.
06-29-2013 05:48 AM
BA,, I must live not that far from you. Just in a 5 mile circle, there is at least 1500+ acres not planted and probably PP. When our area goes unplanted, it's unimaginable. I planted last 40 acres of soys yesterday. those will be good ones, Im sure. got stuck only once, tho.
06-29-2013 06:30 AM
I am in an area of southern MN that is fully planted, although with wet spots and patches of yellow corn, and tiny soybeans. I did replant about 25 acres this week to get back to fully planted
I drove to Owatonna MN to attend a Richie Bros auction, and saw thousands of acres that never got even dug, much less planted. I don't think we are going to add anything to the surplus this year, either.
The other point, besides being too wet, is how cold it is. THis is almost the fourth of July, and if I saw the predictions right, we are going to be in the 70's???
The days are getting shorter, and how we get to a bin buster of a crop from here gives me a little pause for thought.
How many saw their old crop bids go up, in conjunction with the 12 cent CBOT July bid? Our local bids went down 25 cents as the buyers are using fall contracts to set the bid. Old crop supplies come in below expectations, and we see a price decline of 25 cents? Should get interesting in the next couple of months.
06-29-2013 06:55 AM
Yes Ida, there`s some unworked bean stubble kitty-corner from my place that`s farmed by a bigshot that`s never late in normal years. Then 1/4 mile from that another bigshot planted corn a little over a week ago(it`s up and lookin` good USDA would say "excellent"), that was purely an insurance play. Usually the market "bids up" to get farmers to plant more, now perhaps the market should bid up for the farmers(in this area anyway) to take care of this crop, I mean who`s gonna fly fungicide on? or sidedress with below APH yields coming. If we have the kind of yr crappy in the fall too and that "insurance play corn" planted the 20th of june is 40% moisture, you couple that with lower prices, some guys just might attach a piece of plywood to their combine sieves
Spraying has been a bearcat, damned wind, gusting over 30, putting Halex and Atrazine on knee high corn without drops, we`ll see how that all pans out.
06-29-2013 07:02 AM - edited 06-29-2013 07:06 AM
You didn't seem to raise your hand last year or this year on the 14 or 164 challenge
You up for losing a steak dinner?
Fyi, we raise a 12-13B crop and you will be able to sell 13 corn for at least 6, less than 12B and likely 7
06-29-2013 10:58 AM
BA -- You bring up some very good points -- about the sidedress and fungicide OR even insecticide treatment . But -- for what its worth , probably 0 -- last summer - we had a pretty good out break of spider mites - I don't have insurance so I had to be pretty pro active here -- I had been scouting them hard along with another app driver - comparing notes - Then they started to blow up -- I started spraying pretty hard - then here came the traffic in the barn lot --- Ken WTF are you doing -- told tem the story - and they drove off shaken there heads - then round 2 ! Bean leaf beetles -- again -- spraying followed by more head shaking -
I always lay out a plot when doing this kind of work - to see if it pays and for future problems - I can go back on , Anyway after 2 weeks time went by - a few got nervous - seems they were worried about the crop insurance part about needing to do what you can for the crop - by then the damage was done .
On the bean leaf beetle plot - they made 8 bpa better than no spray - I F- up the mite plot - but did have a worse case plot cut 20 under what i had sprayed - not good data - It was along my yard - no spray - cut yard - or should say weeds and dust and drove them in .
So after this ramble - the point is that one farm when 47 and another 49 - even after the summer we had . I did have some honest neighbors stop by and say they screwed themselves by not spraying - they got -just above the insurance - then lost 8 bpa worrying about losing a dime to help the crop .
His just may be what you see out there - to many with the I don't give a F it will only help the insurance company attitude . And Screw themselfs -- Maybe some should go back to just farming the best they can , then see what happens . JMHO
06-29-2013 12:06 PM
Ken, I see fields that are half or more bare in some cases, with just "islands" of halfway decent corn. Those would be a field that was probably planted on the 16th of May and got that first drink of cold water and it just killed the germ, now being planted 5/16/13 it has the full insurance protection load...it`s esentially a "prevent plant" field, to have ripped it up the 6th of June would`ve been foolish, they`re obviously gonna shell it in road gear and turn it in for a claim. Now with the bad news bears celebrating after the USDA report like a gay pride rally after the SCOTUS ruling, there isn`t much financial incentive to sidedress those "islands" and to fly on fungicide would earn you a one way ticket to *Cherokee