08-12-2011 07:27 PM - edited 08-12-2011 09:01 PM
SE IA field was planted early May, 112 day corn, taken from one of the best areas in the field and showed very little signs of stress, plants had good color, most of the field actually looks pretty good..........these are six consecutive ears, no cherry picking..........the ears around these looked as bad or worse.........hard to guess yield given its probably worse out in the middle were the heat really baked things........its likely going to struggle to break 100 avg (likely 85-100) and if it does, it wont be by much..........
An hour after pulling these they were denting..........not much left in those kernals.........
Not sure what happens to this market, but IMO we are now firmly in a position that if demand does not change WE WILL RUN OUT OF CORN BY SUMMER 2012..........again, if the demand dynamics do not change..........crop is now below 12.5B..........
Like I said yesterday SHOCK AND AW YET TO COME................
EDIT: yes soya are being worked over really good too..........pods are not there.........they done left town, and the pods hanging on are going to drop............course I said soya were already at a disadvantage because of planting date back in May..........this only pushes things further..........been at 41 for soya since early spring.........likely struggle to hit that now........rains look impressive on radar and equal ZERO on the ground...........thats if they even if they get here on the radar..........
08-12-2011 08:13 PM
08-12-2011 10:43 PM
Mizzou, Where are we if the real average is 135, or 125? I drove across southern mizzou and all of kansas last week and viewed thousands of acres that will come into the below 40 bushels per acre. This failure is getting more real all daily, at levels that Iowa and nebraska cannot make up.
08-12-2011 10:58 PM
Same thing here in North Cretral Ill, except we had high winds and some hail.
Gosses wilt showing up in some varities, Its impressive, never seen this here before, I'm 62.
Maybe we were just lucky before.
08-12-2011 11:22 PM
40% of the corn in our area, sw ks, flashed leaves in 113 degree heat one Sunday afternoon. just one of many days over 110.
This week I saw two fields, green to the ground beautiful irrigated fields, green chopped into a feedlot silage pit. Big, long ears with 2-3% polination. Plenty of water just too much heat.
80 bushel average in kansas will suprise me.
08-12-2011 11:42 PM
Here in EC Nebr. we fianally caught a 1" -2" this am. Been close to 2 months since we last had a rain like that but have caught some .10 - .40 in a couple of times. Our corn "Looks" great Green from top to bottom and that normally doesn't happen here. But looking today at 112 day corn planted May 3rd with no real setbacks this year (other than this dry spell) and 5 weeks of extreme heat and humidiy---the corn pollinated around July 17-20 and is fully DENTED today! WAY TOO FAST! Ears are small around and kernal depth is shallow! Finally analysis is ---------THIS CROP IS SHORT EVEN HERE where we probably had some of the best conditions in the country
08-13-2011 05:56 AM
Mike, see niafarmer's post to me below. apparently, we are misinformed and underestimating our crop. raining here on this saturday morning. maybe got the driveway wet. we're good!
08-13-2011 06:59 AM
Same here..sidewalk is wet. Hope more water fell north and east. I was lucky enough to grab over a half last weekend. Those ears on the coop counter came from another customer of mine. The ear that was filled out was from another customer. That was an early Garst number. I don't think different brands can escape pollination problems in the heat we have had but its a great story right now. My guess for yields at this point for our area are slightly less corn than last year and beans about the same. Last year was no record breaker. You had some great beans though...MikeM