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Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,231
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

1947 analogue

from Jim Meade's post, "your risk mgmt outlook"

----{Dr. Elwynn Taylor is always entertaining and sometimes right in his weather prognostications.  He says this looks like 1947}------- which yielded 23% less than previous year and 16% less than previous 5 yr average.........how does this stack up for this year?

 

--based on this info, how are y'all prognosticating????????????? managing, risking, profiting?

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,498
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: 1947 analogue

We sometimes give Elwynn a bum rap .."predicting 10 of the last 2 doughts" and so forth, but he only gives the odds of a event happening based on a El Nino or La Nina.  No one really knows the weather exactly more than 3 days out, too many variables and black swans that far out. But he really nails the national yield estimates, it helps that he`s from a land grant university instead of endusers signing his checks :smileywink:

 

Around here(NCIA), we may be better prepared for a repeat of 1947, because for us the growing season is starting out crappy and I doubt that anyone is forward selling, with a high percentage of our intended acres still in the bag and some that`s planted is underwater. Backyarditis is tough on both sides of the spectrum, for us it`s caution.  Time`ll tell.

We shouldn`t have to light a candle to see the Sun.
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,585
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: 1947 analogue

My Dad told me that in 1947 here in NW Ohio, He finished planting corn on June 27th.  It had frosted earlier in June.   The only two months of the year it didn't frost was July and August as it again frosted again in September.   It was a very sparce year crop-wise. They made do with the crops they raised in 1946 as most of their crops went into feeding livestock.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 810
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: 1947 analogue

All you need to know is the year ends with a three,  always short.  I dont know if we rally into summer or hang around until it is comfirmed in the fall.  But, it should be short.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,231
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: 1947 analogue

agreed, vrbuck.

 

thanks for y'alls comments.

 

with the fireworks (beans @ least) starting before Memorial day?????????  could be a long, profitable summer.

Senior Contributor
Slim123
Posts: 199
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: 1947 analogue

I agree with your statement, VR Buck.  That last 25 % planted will be hard to do and if it is done will be in hurried into the ground in bad conditions. 

Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,492
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: 1947 analogue

My comment is that anyone holding old crop beans and corn after the market action this spring will deserve every nickel they get for hanging on, and will have earned any premiums they get.

 

And that is why with free enterprise, you never run out of a commodity...at some point, the rewards of hanging on have to be higher than the risks of not letting go.

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Veteran Contributor
dafeeder
Posts: 107
Registered: ‎01-24-2011
0

Re: 1947 analogue

VRBUCK

 

Coud you or someone please give me a link to your website?

Veteran Contributor
weedman
Posts: 138
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: 1947 analogue

To continue on the thought about 1947. We had a record snowfall event this year for the most snow in May. I believe 11" May 2.  The previous record was set in 1947 at 10". The big, BIG difference, was the 1947 snow happened MAY 28 !!!!!. My father, who has since passed, said they were planting corn that day and had to stop because it was snowing fast enough to cover there planter mark. Turned off hot and dry and his first crop after being patched up after WWII was pretty much a failure.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,231
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: 1947 analogue

wow weedman......that is a story...may 28th