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07-03-2012 10:53 AM
I keep reading about this being like 1988. This is nothing like 88 because we went into that year with an 8 billion bu. carry out.
After the drought we still had a 4 billion bu. carry out. If we had had a good crop this year, the gov't projected close to a 2 billion carry out. In my opinion we are not going to have a carry out and it could get real negitive.
07-03-2012 12:32 PM
I think it was closer to 4 billion but on a demand base not much more than half of last year's- so in a sense you're not all wrong.
The biggest difference I see agronomically with '88 is that then most were still tilling a lot, still had a lot of moldboard plowpans etc. Our cultural practices have advanced a lot and while poor stands were endemic in '88- not so much this year- although I'm sure there are exceptions.
Don't know what to think although a disaster of the same magnitude as a percent of trend would put us down under 120, which I doubt.
One thing about '88 was the HUGE shocker of upwardly revised yields in the Jan '89 final. Whether we found more old corn, better yhields, whatever, we can continue to debate and never know. But it sure was amazing that some of that 4' tall IN corn popped off a little ear and pushed out 90 bu corn even though in July EVERYBODY was sure it would never see a combine.
One thing that still amazed me in recent years is how the high pops add up. Anybody's guess what happens but if you have 33K ears with .2# number 2 on average (i.e. nubbins), that is 118 bpa. At .3# it is 176.
A lot is unknowable at this point is how many of those 33K stalks will make ears, and a lot of other things.
07-03-2012 12:36 PM
I said that I doubted the same eprcentage decrease from trend- 120 bpa. Woldn't completely rule out a departure from trend of the same number of bushels which puts you down near 130.
Beer talk(if somebody else is buying)- DiMaggio or Williams- at this point.
07-03-2012 04:18 PM
The other big difference between 88 and now is it started to rain around the 3rd week of June which limited to slide in the crop to a loss of 4 million bu.
We will all know who is right if corn gets over $8. I don't know if that will happen but if it does not rain we will have a good chance to have $8 corn in the next 2 weeks.
07-03-2012 04:29 PM
You were correct on the damage in 88. I went back and looked. Going into the 88 year we had a 4 billion plus carry out. With 2 billion losses, the carry out went to about 2 billion bu. However, to produce a 2 billion loss this year would require a much less % loss than 88.
I stand corrected.
07-04-2012 08:28 AM
Nox, interesting post. A couple of things about your post that I would question is that you said in '88 there were poor stands. That is more than likely why there were some ears out there. If you look at some of our corn here in Mo. where there is a skip or low pop. there is an ear, where there are good stands it's questionable whether it will even put an ear on. So that being said if they have that high pop. that is going to just put that much more stress on the plant and my experiences from numerous years of hot and dry weather here in Mo. says a lot of corn in those areas will not produce a shoot. I guess we'll know in a few days. We definitely have better hybrids than we did 25 yrs. ago too so that could make all the difference.
07-04-2012 08:56 AM
In 1988 I had a 7000 JD planter (in 83 I planted with a stone age IH 56 6 row with metal gandy wheels) so I had good stands all over. THe best corn was on a field where I changed pops, I was going to raised the pop from 30k to 33k and instead moved the wrong gear and lowered it to about 27k. Only corn I had that year over 100bpa.
HIgh pops are good if you have the moisture...in a dry year, less is more. Some of these fields at the high 30's will have a lot of stress this year if the rains don't come.
07-04-2012 10:13 AM