07-23-2013 09:14 PM
07-23-2013 09:46 PM
Unfortunately it is an unknown based on (IMO) the one factor that is new and unique this year -------- the late planting. I would agree with high yield. But in our area --- the hot high plains---- the later planted ---- talking after May 15 ----- is still struggling with the heat. Earlier planted is taking it pretty well and looking pretty good if the irrig water is adequate. But the later planted stuff is sucking up in the 100 heat and trying to tassel at about 5-6 ft. Sometimes that is not a big deal and sometimes it is.
Throw in the late, late, late planted stuff up in shorter season country and the unknown gets bigger and more volatile.
If it doesn't rain up in God's conury for a couple of weeks the answer will come earlier. But if late planting is the issue, we may not know until October. And by then there will be enough corn coming it to fulfill a few needs and the suspense may build til January.
Then we are into the amazing prediction season.
As bad as 2012 ??????? usda's 2012------- very possible
Is there a chance the market never responds to it ------------ very possible
07-23-2013 10:24 PM - edited 07-23-2013 10:26 PM
it could be better or worse that 2012....main point is to decouple the market action from how big or small production will end up. IMO, late planting + all the stats (historical) which say crop rebounds after a 2012-like year has allowed mkt players to play more....... I believe it's that simple, along with larger world supplies whether they get exported or not..........just notice the news and stories follow market action.......if Corn was rallying it might be some similar stories and China rebuilding stocks, etc.
someone mentioned possibility of new crop trading down to 400, but today seemed like "kill the last weak longs" type of day---intraday volume seemed to back this.
a significant % of prod still has noteworthy risk---late planted, some of which is even more behind.....freeze during grain fill a real threat, etc.
07-23-2013 11:50 PM
Shaggy, USDA killed the corn market a couple months ago. Not even heavy rains, or even snow in Iowa at planting time could bring life back to this dead horse. Since I have no bins of my own, I market more new crop than many on this site. To me, soybeans are easier to market new crop than corn. January and February are the months that the market seems to worry about South American bean yields and a possible acreage battle with corn. It seems corn gives us an opportunity to market new crop around planting time or pollination. This year the door opened just slightly for making good new crop corn sales back in April, I like many thought we were going higher but it didn't. With pollination in full swing across most of the cornbelt and cooler temps, I doubt we see new crop corn move higher for a while. An early frost could send this market screaming higher, but we are more than likely a month or a little better away from that. If I have corn left after paying bills this year I might put some on DP until January and see what the report has to say.... Maybe the unplanted acreage will show up then?
For the most part we are in better shape in 2013 than we were in 2012. Im sorry that Shaggy farms wont have much of a corn crop this year. Its tough to watch a crop burn up and die in the field. Oh well, maybe next year you will be farming in "New Indiana" LOL! Hang in there brother!
07-24-2013 04:06 AM
As a whole, is this years corn crop going to be as bad as 2012?
As A whole -- it would be hard to equal 2012 - Last years drought was all across the country .
Not talking individual producers, but the final numbers tallied in January. Maybe it's to early to be making predictions like that, but the USDA had it's predictions before a single seed was planted, probably before a single seed was even purchased.
The USDA do's that every year - they just pull out a number to start with , there way to controll where they want the price to be . And hope - there in the ball park .
Just trying to figure these markets out, they just do not make sense. Where are all these 200+ yields coming from to bring the average to 150+?
Just about every state east of old muddy is pretty good over all , did a pop. and kernel count last week - it worked out to 230 bpa - Will it make that at harvest - no - missed all the rains the last few days - so I would say that the top is in and the final will go down - but is 200 a chance - ? maybe . Talked to a good friend in western KY yesterday - corn may be a record down there .
Really Shaggy you are asking 2 questions here -- production and bpa - they won't count what was not planted -- so then bpa would --could be up as in the 150 to 155 final , but total production number could be down .
The bigest unknown to me is if -- say we had 2.5 to 3 million PP acres - then IF the northen boys get froze out early - how acres would that hurt ? 5 6 or 7 million ? I don't know - but that would be a big game changer .
I'm afraid the the USDA is going to hold hard to there numbers - the more the production number go's down then they will just increase imported corn - to the east coast and the gulf .
But what do I know - lol I'm just a gap tooth --crossbred - hillbilly - lmao
07-24-2013 07:19 AM
07-24-2013 07:20 AM
Smarter people than me are saying USDA will use "abandoned acres" to square things. In "this" area I can see that probably will happen, unless the killing frost holds off until mid-November. There`s some corn that was planted June 20 (IMO, solely for ins. purposes, 20% hit for late planting is a higher gross than PP). Now, that corn looks to be in "excellent" condition, green and so forth, but it`s only thigh-high and rolls in the noonday sun. But, those are counted acres, nonetheless. I have a feeling no tears would be shed if that corn doesn`t get a ear, beats having to deal with 40-40-40 corn in the fall.