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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

Shaggy98,

 

The "information machine" never shuts off. :smileyhappy:

 

Actually, I meant to post this Friday and ran out of time. I just thought it might spark some thought-starters on what's around the corner in 2013.

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

ECIN,

 

It's always possible that you could turn out to be right, until it's determined you were wrong. I think somebody has said that before, but I can't recall that famous person.

 

Mike

Advisor
idalivered
Posts: 1,316
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: 2013 is another year

Shaggy, it seems to rain where don, me, and this rsw guy live. Rsw is right about one thing for sure. we've lost way more to too wet than too dry. we were still tilin' this fall. It takes about 4 hours to get wet in this country.

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,230
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: 2013 is another year

Glad to hear someone might be receiving rain.  They have put us in a winter weather advisory for tomorrow, but are only predicting 2"-4".  We are just in a dry pattern, can't even get much humidity on a regular basis.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

Mike, while i don't know the precise areas of SA which are planted in corn/beans, a look at the world drought monitor in the 3 and 6 month timeframe in SA shows MOST areas in what the U.S. considers D2-D4 Drought. click on link below, then you can zoom in to SA.

 

http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html?map=%2Fwww%2Fdrought%2Fweb_pages%2Fdrought.map&program=%2...

 

c-x-1

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,604
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

Wait????  I thought there were no crop problems in SA.    That is what our markets have been telling us.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Frequent Contributor
BlackCattle
Posts: 43
Registered: ‎12-11-2012
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

Here is a "drought outlook" from Dec 20 till March 31. Not looking very good for subsoil moisture being replinished.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdohomeweb.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,230
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

How long until the drought secret is out of the bag?  I need to reverse my short positions to long ones.  LOL

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

markets just need to do what they need to do - IMO don't think there is ANY risk premium in right now (all grains)  with end of the yr, fiscal cliff bs, etc....i just do as much research as possible.....i have a good memory - the current drought map in SA is not much, if any better than last year @ this time. The commercials are covering shorts en masse, particularly in corn last 2 weeks of COT data. I know there is much more uncertainty about JAN report than usual and with prices at what seem to be a pretty good discount, fundamentally speaking (world stocks, drought, etc) ??????????????????????

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: 2013: What's Your Question?

I agree BlackCattle, re:current drought....the only reason nat'l corn yield was above 100 bpa (2011-2012) - subsoil moisture was relatively abundant. It is NOT there NOW. Do an archive comparison on the drought website w/ current vs last year/same week - the drought had yet to begin in midwest. The only thing we know for sure - 2013 won't be for the weak of stomach.