12-29-2012 03:46 PM
The "information machine" never shuts off.
Actually, I meant to post this Friday and ran out of time. I just thought it might spark some thought-starters on what's around the corner in 2013.
12-29-2012 03:48 PM
It's always possible that you could turn out to be right, until it's determined you were wrong. I think somebody has said that before, but I can't recall that famous person.
12-30-2012 06:34 AM
Shaggy, it seems to rain where don, me, and this rsw guy live. Rsw is right about one thing for sure. we've lost way more to too wet than too dry. we were still tilin' this fall. It takes about 4 hours to get wet in this country.
12-30-2012 09:13 AM
Glad to hear someone might be receiving rain. They have put us in a winter weather advisory for tomorrow, but are only predicting 2"-4". We are just in a dry pattern, can't even get much humidity on a regular basis.
12-30-2012 06:40 PM
Mike, while i don't know the precise areas of SA which are planted in corn/beans, a look at the world drought monitor in the 3 and 6 month timeframe in SA shows MOST areas in what the U.S. considers D2-D4 Drought. click on link below, then you can zoom in to SA.
12-30-2012 09:19 PM
Here is a "drought outlook" from Dec 20 till March 31. Not looking very good for subsoil moisture being replinished.
12-30-2012 10:15 PM
markets just need to do what they need to do - IMO don't think there is ANY risk premium in right now (all grains) with end of the yr, fiscal cliff bs, etc....i just do as much research as possible.....i have a good memory - the current drought map in SA is not much, if any better than last year @ this time. The commercials are covering shorts en masse, particularly in corn last 2 weeks of COT data. I know there is much more uncertainty about JAN report than usual and with prices at what seem to be a pretty good discount, fundamentally speaking (world stocks, drought, etc) ??????????????????????
12-30-2012 10:36 PM
I agree BlackCattle, re:current drought....the only reason nat'l corn yield was above 100 bpa (2011-2012) - subsoil moisture was relatively abundant. It is NOT there NOW. Do an archive comparison on the drought website w/ current vs last year/same week - the drought had yet to begin in midwest. The only thing we know for sure - 2013 won't be for the weak of stomach.