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09-09-2012 03:51 PM
I know I know........you guys don't buy into this idea of "peak corn"............
and it surely can't happen four years in a row.............
at least think about how large acres, on variable ground, with variable weather, with crops misplaced looks for total production.........
09-09-2012 04:11 PM
09-09-2012 04:29 PM
Love it......absolutely love it.......
Agree 100 percent.........2010 and 2011 were not horrible in the grand scheme of things......sure there was variability in areas.........BUT BUT BUT BUT.......that's what I have been trying to say........big acres and a more volatile weather pattern means we are fighting an up hill battle called trend line yield.......which is irrelevant at this point.........we could have a lot more 2010 and 2011 years ahead with a few 2009 and 2012 years as well...........
All while demand is pent up or growing...........
09-09-2012 04:47 PM
I have never agreed with the idea of trend line yields unless it is generally the same ground each year or a type there of. On our farm and county that concept works but as you get over very large areas it is harder to determine (nation wide).Weather is one thing but quality of land is another thing.
09-09-2012 05:22 PM
The thing you need to remember is that demand is shrinking as we speak. Liquidation continues in livestock, exports are terrible, and ethanol is hanging in the balance. Anyone who thinks ethanol is safe is out of their tree. If Obama wins the democrats probably won't do anything to it right after the election but if we have another bad year and livestock and exports don't contract enough to make up the shortfal ethanol will be on the chopping block big time. I have a feeling that if Romney wins the republicans will want to gut ethanol sooner rather than later. This isn't an endorsement of or commentary on any candidate. I'm just repeating what I am reading between the lines. If ethanol goes on the chopping block you have up to 5 billion bushels more to play with. I do realize that even if they repeal the mandate ethanol will probably still be produced but one would have to think on a much smaller scale. Lots of unknowns at this point. I have a feeling we won't plant as many acres of corn next year as we did this year.
09-09-2012 07:51 PM
The trendline yields would have to be going down if you are honest and actually average in 2011 and 2012's crops.
Demand absolutely has to drop on the corn side.
Wheat and soybean acres will be huge in 2013. I agree that corn acres will be lower.
If gas prices stay high, ethanol is not going anywhere....
09-09-2012 08:15 PM
09-09-2012 08:34 PM
As for livestock......its weird cause I hear and see barns going up.......assuming they are preparing for the impending rise.......so I am not sure I buy this major liquidation talk, rebalance maybe, liquidation?????
As for ethanol........5B?????.....nope.......maybe 3B.......remember all the byproducts like DDG's have to be replaced if things went lights out.......and that's a whole year too........
09-09-2012 09:38 PM
If you don't believe in peak yields try growing cotton. We have been going down not up on yield the last few years.
As far as demand I'm looking at buying two pot loads of 5-6wt stockers for winter. If I can make it work so can lots of others.