Marketing

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I know I know........you guys don't buy into this idea of "peak corn"............

and it surely can't happen four years in a row.............

BUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://twitpic.com/ash6ys

at least think about how large acres, on variable ground, with variable weather, with crops misplaced looks for total production.........

[Redpower410280]

First you have to believe 2010 and 2011 were short crops I really don't. They were not what the government predicted but not short. I look at next year as being the possibility of 2 in a row and that is very possible. This years corn crop will be below 10 billion and who knows how low beans will be.

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Love it......absolutely love it.......

Agree 100 percent.........2010 and 2011 were not horrible in the grand scheme of things......sure there was variability in areas.........BUT BUT BUT BUT.......that's what I have been trying to say........big acres and a more volatile weather pattern means we are fighting an up hill battle called trend line yield.......which is irrelevant at this point.........we could have a lot more 2010 and 2011 years ahead with a few 2009 and 2012 years as well...........

All while demand is pent up or growing...........

[Soyfarmer]

I have never agreed with the idea of trend line yields unless it is generally the same ground each year or a type there of. On our farm and county that concept works but as you get over very large areas it is harder to determine (nation wide).Weather is one thing but quality of land is another thing.

[67guy]

The thing you need to remember is that demand is shrinking as we speak.  Liquidation continues in livestock, exports are terrible, and ethanol is hanging in the balance.  Anyone who thinks ethanol is safe is out of their tree.  If Obama wins the democrats probably won't do anything to it right after the election but if we have another bad year and livestock and exports don't contract enough to make up the shortfal ethanol will be on the chopping block big time.  I have a feeling that if Romney wins the republicans will want to gut ethanol sooner rather than later.  This isn't an endorsement of or commentary on any candidate.  I'm just repeating what I am reading between the lines.  If ethanol goes on the chopping block you have up to 5 billion bushels more to play with.  I do realize that even if they repeal the mandate ethanol will probably still be produced but one would have to think on a much smaller scale.  Lots of unknowns at this point.  I have a feeling we won't plant as many acres of corn next year as we did this year.

[roarintiger1]

The trendline yields would have to be going down if you are honest and actually average in 2011 and 2012's crops.

Demand absolutely has to drop on the corn side.

Wheat and soybean acres will be huge in 2013.  I agree that corn acres will be lower.

If gas prices stay high,  ethanol is not going anywhere....

[kyu2852570]

My best guess is USDA will lower the yield for 13 down from 166 , they have to don't they? But whatever they lower it by they will increase acres or lower demand for the same net. I agree we probably have peeked but 170 isn't out of the question if everything is absolutely perfect everywhere and what's that a 10% chance? Funny our bankers don't loan money off the feb optimism of USDA

[Mizzou_Tiger]

Think global......world stocks are in a nut crusher.......you are right, exports are slow and they should be......however they are going elsewhere.....which means its not slowing just hand to mouth and depleting any reserves......

As for livestock......its weird cause I hear and see barns going up.......assuming they are preparing for the impending rise.......so I am not sure I buy this major liquidation talk, rebalance maybe, liquidation?????

As for ethanol........5B?????.....nope.......maybe 3B.......remember all the byproducts like DDG's have to be replaced if things went lights out.......and that's a whole year too........

[Farmerjoe79]

I think time the tippin at his 170 for a national yield will be spot on for 2013 not!!!!! It will likely be more around that 135 range.

[Jed Stivers]

If you don't believe in peak yields try growing cotton. We have been going down not up on yield the last few years. 

As far as demand I'm looking at buying two pot loads of 5-6wt stockers for winter. If I can make it work so can lots of others.