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Contributor
AgFuture
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎10-30-2013
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2014 Corn Acres

I understand all the talk of reduced corn acres in 2014...it needs to happen if we want to produce a good crop and make money. However, history doesn't show we will cut many acres back. In fact, history shows we will plant close to 2013.

Past years of drought/flood

74/75. We planted 77.94ac...71.9 yield. We planted 78.72ac in 75 and 84.59ac in 76.

80/81. We planted 84.04ac...91 yield. We planted 84.10ac in 1981 and 81.66ac in 1982

83/84. We planted 60.21ac...81.10 yield. We planted 80.52ac in 1984 and 83.49 in 1985.

88/89. We planted 67.72ac...84.60 yield. We planted 72.32ac in 1989 and 74.17 in 1990.

93/94. We planted 73.24ac...110.70 yield. We planted 78.92ac in 1994 and 71.8ac in 1995...this was also a short crop year with yield well below trend at 113. We bounced back in 97 and 98 with 79.23ac and 79.54ac.

We know recent history...2011 at 147 yield and 2012 at 2012.

We tried 97 this year and the jury is out for 2014.

My guess is 94-95mm acres.

Why?
Too much invested not to raise corn...we will need to see a few years of heavy losses before corn acres are reduced enough to have an impact.
The corn market will probably see it's lows in 2015/2016 unless mother natures raises havoc and we have an extremely short crop in 2014.
Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010

Re: 2014 Corn Acres

Each year you cited followed a year of far bellow normal production, this year was record production. No correlation.
In a year after record production we have fallen off by as little as a few hundred million bushels to over 3 billion bushel from 92 to 93.
Contributor
AgFuture
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎10-30-2013
0

Re: 2014 Corn Acres

Farsider. There is a correlation. That's what I'm identifying. In those years we planted larger acres for TWO years after the short crop year. No different from last years short crop to 97 million this year...94-95 next. It's the relationship of chasing the acres from the short year price. Interesting that after short year spikes in price, the low in the market comes three/four years later. I just study history and look at tendencies. It's like guys at coffee in the morning saying we won't plant near as much next year but they all prepaid for their corn already.
Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: 2014 Corn Acres

Farm program a factor. Bins held grain for the government reserve. Stocks were Low and it took time to rebuild. Acres were pretty well set each year by the government unless weather affected spring planting. Freedom to farm wasn't a thought in those days
Senior Contributor
Slim123
Posts: 204
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
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Re: 2014 Corn Acres

If the soybean price doesn't fall out bed for next year, getting back to a crop rotation( 50-50) is what I am hearing here. 

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,364
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: 2014 Corn Acres

I plant the same average breakdown each year within just a few percentage points. I'm not planting any corn in 2014 so I imagine we will have perfect growing conditions for it. HA HA, just how my luck usually runs. I'm placing my corn acreage back into a fallow period, depending on seasonal weather, possible some cover crops on a few acres for some testing.
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,132
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: 2014 Corn Acres

Well, make of it what you will but Bigshots around here were putting gas on corn stalk ground right up to freeze up.  I don`t think all that many change their rotation of what`s worked for them just because the corn/bean price ratio is out of whack.  And either $4 corn was expected or it hasn`t sunk in yet.

 

I can`t speak for fringe areas, but I imagine if a new Reinke was put in, it will be used regardless, as long as natural gas or whatever fuel they use to pump water is cheaper along with the price of corn, it`ll get used.

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,826
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: 2014 Corn Acres

Slim123 is right, the areas that traditionally rotate and have been hammering corn for the last three years because of price have an opportunity to cut expenses some and rotate crops to help future corn yields.  

And I agree BA we are geared for corn production with the greatest demand usage of my lifetime.  Especially in the irrigation areas of the west.  (the world population has doubled in those years usda thinks we will repeat.)

The thread has me wondering if the old corn/bean ratio is valid?  Or has it changed?  I think it is .... both.   We have seen an obvious increase in POTENTIAL(and therefore average) corn yields from the technology.  I do not think we have seen that equaled in soybeans.  Maybe beans will have to pay more for acres because of the yield expectations we have in corn.

sw
Senior Contributor
BF2012
Posts: 245
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
0

Seed Corn Salesman

[ Edited ]

around here have their assholes puckered up and faces as long as mules who've been eating corn out of a  4" gas pipe.   I'm ramping up for 100% beans for 2014.   My corn went into bins in best condition I've seen....great kernel depth, test weight, clean samples, have it down to 14% moisture in all bins and just ran the fans the last two nights @ 16 degrees.  Going to do some research about how to keep it that way through the summer of 2014.   Any suggestions about fanning it down once temps start rising in the spring would be appreciated.   I'm holding for $ 2.75.  

 

I believe there will be a huge shift to soybeans come spring....especially in fringe areas where APH's are in the 120-150 area.I think those euphoric bears are underestimating Mother Nature and overestimating technological advances for yield potential. 

 

Trendline yields have been going down, not up.....still not certain the carryover numbers are anything different than Unemployment and Obamacare fudge sheets.    I made the rounds to ADM, Consolidated today picking up some tickets......it was a virtual ghosttown out there and the piles are getting smaller by the minute.   

 

I've proven I don't know jack **bleep** about anything, so simply take this post for what it is worth.....nothing.  

 

Carry on.

 

 

Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,241
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: 2014 Corn Acres

Dry it lower than 14% bf?