07-09-2014 01:05 PM
|Just published a new article on 2014 weather conditions and corn yield at farmdoc daily:
We recognize that we MAY be headed for a US average corn yield in the 170s, but it is not a forgone conclusion given extreme rainfall during June in the western Corn Belt. Curious what farmers think was impact of such high rainfall on yield potential in these areas.
University of Illinois
PS. If anyone is interested I am now also on Twitter @ScottIrwinUI
07-09-2014 01:58 PM - edited 07-09-2014 06:17 PM
I do NOT know what the corn yield will be as an average though at the 170's, recognized as a top yield, I know that not much can go wrong. And I've received reports of fairly wide areas in Nebraska and Iowa [that have had storm damage], and the likelihood of denitirification in other areas, that I think there has to be some recognition that over 170 bu average has to be a reach. It may occur but making a bet on that might not be the thing to do.
07-09-2014 03:51 PM
Overall crop looking good in Northern Illinois but large areas of denitrification here as well. 12 plus inches in June after a fairly dry May. But you can't see ALL the holes during the 60 mph window tour. Top swiss cheese indeed
07-10-2014 08:12 AM
Conclusions are pretty much what what I opined from the cracker barrel a couple days ago.
It's hard telling what the market thinks now or until there are hard numbers to trade but for my own purposes I'll say that final corn yield probably goes 160-168ish depending on finish. 10-14 day forecast just about closes the window on serious corn weather threats.
Big deal is beans. Optimum bean weather is also probably a bit drier than normal during vegetative stages then plenty of rain and sun during fill so we're already slightly less than optimum- with fill moisture still unknown.
If we'd happen to shorten the bean crop more than a little I think there would still be a modest need to bid acres next year etc. If we'd happen to have a great finish it could be pretty tough.
FWIW, hard to argue against a big crop as far as E.IL and Indiana look but I'm thinking that is the best favored broad area this year.