06-19-2011 10:04 AM
Hey Art, what`s the definition of bearish? If the market drops 20%? If we would go to a bear market instead of the elevator paying a high of $6.50 forward contract, it would then be less than $5.20 hot off the combine. With the less than ideal events of the last 2 months, later this summer or fall we will wake up and say "how could we not have seen it, the handwriting was on the wall". On US Farm Report they said the fundamentals are here, its just the funds have taken away some of the froth that they brought to the market..they`ll be baaack, they just want to re-enter at a lower price. JMHO
06-19-2011 11:42 AM
September corn is trading 13 cents lower than July. The trade must not think that last bushel is going to be priceless.
On the contrary, Soys are trading equal in July vs aug and sept.
06-19-2011 06:44 PM
Hey SWOhio, the insurance companies have placed huge bets that $6.00 will pretty much stop it in October and they usally aren`t on the losing side of the bet. Not that many yrs ago if a farmer was offered $4 he would`ve sold 3yrs of corn with a watermelon grin, today a drop to $4 for a significant amount of time would bring on another farm crisis.
06-19-2011 09:52 PM
Really corn can't go to $4? I never thoiught milk would go back to $10, but it did in 09. Your costs mean nothing to the enduser! Why should they? Corn can and will have a 4 infront of it again. it will certainly have a 5 in front of it. And I'll bet a whole bunch of folks don;t collect any insurance when corn is at 5 bucks to.
06-20-2011 06:34 AM
There have been more years of selling at or below production cost then the profits we have seen lately. Do you think this can go on forever? If and when the news media starts portraying ethanol in a bad light the party is over. Benn thru this too many times to think otherwise.
06-20-2011 07:19 AM
60% of the national debt will mature in 4 yrs. Someone, somewhere will have to buy $10 TRILLION of our debt. Now, will the powers that be want to defend the dollar? Having to go hat in hand to our lenders to refinance, what would a 10% prime do to our deficit? Watch this 3 min vid for Zimbabwe`s story. A can of Coke that cost $50 billion for breakfast cost $100 billion at dinnertime and went to $150 billion at suppertime!
A farmer might think he`s in the clover by forward selling corn in the morning for $50billion/bu, when it`s time for bed he can`t sleep because he`s worried about having to deliver $150 billion/bu corn...just sayin`