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Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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5-5 Weather Update

Morning All.  I was greeted this morning by this:

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

The above is todays jet stream map.  Now, 5 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

And finally, 10 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

This formation takes us half way through May.  I'm sure you all see what I'm talking about - and it isn't good.  That same low pressure system up in Canada just sitting there again.  It oscillates the jet stream up and down in the US, and keeps the bulk of the midwest cold and wet for the forseeable future.  During the entire ten days shown here, the levels of the atmospere are pumping moisture into the central US.  Combined with the heat and dryness from the SW, and we have an upper midwest that looks to stay cool and damp.  Sorry guys....the high pressure in the SW lost this battle.  The low in Canada is just too strong.

 

Jen

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,372
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: 5-5 Weather Update

You say it's pumping moisture into the Central US, does that mean Central Kansas could possibly get some rain?
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,216
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: 5-5 Weather Update

 
60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,216
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: 5-5 Weather Update

Jenny's center is Wisconsin
60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: 5-5 Weather Update

It's still a ways out, but here's the possibility:

10 Day forecast of 1000 mb (near-surface) temperature and wind from the GFS model

 

 

This is 9 days away - forever in weather forecasting.  But it least it offers you some hope Shag.  The convergence of the two major air masses (seperated by the white line), and then the overriding jet stream from the north could spark some thunderstorms.  But - there's a lot of what if's right now.  As you can see the Highs over the deep south are pumping up moisture.  The airmasses are not exceptionally warm though, and will limit somewhat the amount of moisture avalilable for thunderstorm development.  But we will have a lot of instability in the atmosphere - that's good - but we just have to wait and see how this all pans out over the next week.  Before then...don't waste your pee...there's a plant out there that could use it.   :smileywink:

 

Jen

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: 5-5 Weather Update

very basic question Jen - what do the numbers on legend which represent colors on map represent? 

i get the isobar high/low P stuff, but............ thanks

 

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: 5-5 Weather Update

It's temperature - in C
Veteran Contributor
Danno067
Posts: 72
Registered: ‎12-08-2013
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Re: 5-5 Weather Update

Jen, I farm in N.E.Wis and I very much appreciate your forecasts. I always see what you have to say before I look at the local tv stations. It seems to me that it is very difficult to forecast the weather one day out much less 14 days. Is the northern hemisphere that unstable or is it globally?

Thanks Dan.
Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010

Re: 5-5 Weather Update

Hi Danno - The weather systems are always moving and changing.  First, you have to always remember that ALL weather on Earth is driven by the sun.  In it's most simple form, unequal heating of the Earth's surface causes wind, and the rotation of the Earth causes the wind to turn ( the Coriolis Effect).  Then add in the variables of water vapor in the atmosphere, the length of day, temperatures of the different land masses that heat differently than water, atmospheric pressure, etc.  You get the idea.  

 

What we see here in the US goes on globally, and continuously.  The weather is always trying to equalize itself.  Here in the midwest, we have some of the most severe weather in the world because of our unique geography.  It allows for large air masses to run into other large air masses with different characteristics - and they don't like to blend very easily.   That blending often causes uplift of the atmosphere, causing water vapor to be pushed higher into the atmosphere, where it condenses, and causes clouds, and ultimately, rainfall.   

 

Most of my weather experiance came from being a pilot, and from having daily contact with the meteorologists at work as an air traffic controller.  We had briefings throughout the day as to what to expect with the weather, and how it was going to effect the pilots.  With my backround in agriculture, combined with the flying and the controlling, I got fairly good at spotting trends and looking at the broader area weather scenerios.  Here's a question.  Do you know how far out from a weather station - let's use Madison, WI - that that report is good for?  (The answer tomorrow)

 

I love to do the long range stuff, as you probably have noted from my posts.  As I was looking at the long term weather last winter, you may have seen my post on the cool spring that I thought we might have, and said to back off on  the growing degree days needed for crops in the upper Midwest.  ( If someone has time to find that post, I would like to see what I said back then - I'm not sure when it was, but I've made several references to it over the last several months.)   No one was saying anything about a cool spring.  You guys heard it here first.  These long term forecasts aren't something that you read off of a computer screen.  And that's the biggest problem with foreasting today.  We're lazy, and it's too easy to simply put out what the computer puts out.  It takes a lot of experience to allow me to do what I do - and it takes a fair amount of time.  Sometimes it's easy, but the last few days we have had some fairly complex systems taking more time than usual, and I know how important it is that I get these forecasts as good as I can for you all.  As you know, I don't always agree with what the weather service puts out.  But we are all still humbled as nature is always trying it's best to prove us wrong...

 

Jen

Frequent Contributor
hardwheat
Posts: 70
Registered: ‎09-29-2013
0

Re: 5-5 Weather Update

any chance you could add south australia to your forecasts???

im still lurking here guys just not game to post after i got berrated last year

 

planting is going well in australia and id say 85% of grain growing areas in good shape at this stage of the year.

my canola lupins peas and vetch will be finished in 2 days then 6000 acres of wheat and barley to go

 

cheers