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Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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6 - 30 Weather Update

[ Edited ]

Good Morning.  It's nice to see the spammers haven't taken over the site this morning - Thanks Jeff.  I know it's a constant fight to keep them at bay.

 

We had 1 inch of rain here in Cannon Falls, and we didn't take the brunt of the weather as it came through. 

 

My baby bluebirds have flown the coop.  Hopefully, the parerts were happy enough that we'll get a second brood in the nest.

 

After taking our grand daughters back home, you realize how quiet a home is without the kids.  It's amazing how much noise and commotion is created on a constant basis with kids in the house.  But it sure is quiet without them, and it was sure fun to have them for a month.

 

On to the weather.  OK.  So - it continues to rain.  This is Friday into Saturday rainfall:

 

 

 

This is yesterdays rainfall:

 

US: Rainfall Estimate 24 Hour

 

This is rainfall for the week (this is as of Saturday Morning):

 

 

Our current Jet Stream:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

The Jet is a factor in our Midwest weather for the next 2 days, and then it begins to retreat up into Canada for a few days, which should give us a bit of the break from the really heavy rainfalls.  This is next Sundays Jet:

 

10 Day forecast of 300 mb winds and heights from the GFS model

 

 

but after this reprieve, we go back into a Jet that looks to drop farther south for next week, and a return to storms, and probably another severe outbreak across the Midwest.

 

For now - our big Low in Canada is the weathermaker that I have been talking about most of the week, and it stays in play fro parts of the Midwest another 2-3 days, and for the East, most of the upcoming work week.  this is the Low this morning:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

You can see it's well developed just North of the 49th, with a cold front to Texas.  Come Tuesday, the weather maps are printing out this:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

IA, WI, parts of MN are probably in for a deluge - or shall we say the deluge will continue.  Except this is going to cause some probably severe localized and possibly area wide flooding with everything already saturated.  Sorry guys.  It continues....

 

After that Low retreats to the NE, finally, it does get replaced with a nice high pressure system for a few days, which will finally clear the skies and give us some very nice days.  But it won't last long - and probably not long enough given the saturated fields out there and you guys that are trying to make hay.  I have seen a lot of hay cut down in numerous places.  Most of it laying brown on the ground and the 2nd  crop coming.  One field I saw on the way back yesterday looked like the farmer had it all raked and ready to go, with the outside rounds round baled, only to have it rain on it heavily yesterday.  I'd like to say that this next break will give you guys a chance, but for most, I doubt it.  The surface is just too wet to get this stuff dry to bale in 3 days.  Maybe you should look at putting up some baleage.  From what I see, it makes some pretty darn good feed.  Anyway, here's that High on Thursday:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

Nice right?  Here's the problem:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

By Saturday, we return to the humidity with the Gulf open, and more chances of rain throughout the entire Midwest:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

 

Most of this rain is going to fall where we have seen it most of the summer, IA, MN, WI, NE, KS.  This is our weather map for the following Wednesday, 10 days from now:

 

10 Day forecast of surface pressure and precipitation amounts from the GFS model

 

Once again, we have a Low in Canada, this time not so well developed and a bit farther North, that will be esentially like the last one, except the jet stream won't be as much of a factor, therefore, less thunderstorm development, and less rainfall.

 

In the lighter soils here by Cannon Falls, the crops look great.  The irrigators haven't had to run yet this year, and I'm sure most of the guys here are really happy about that.  The peas are coming off, and guys are right behind them tilling the ground up to put the beans in.  And, yes, most of them are getting mudded in the way it looks to me.  But it's a chance crop anyway.  If it continues to rain, it might be OK.  Right now, nothing much has changed.  The High in th Pacific is still there, Low pressure systems attempting to come on shore are killed or being diverted to the North into Canada.  Rainfall the Midwest is getting is because of the open Gulf, with winds down there still out of the SE and flowing into the Midwest, or, in the case of the Low currently in play, all the way to the artic circle.

 

Temps remain moderate.  Nothing to report there - smae old, same old.  Although I did hear this morning a snip it on our local weather syaing that we are like 3 tenths of an inch from hitting an all time record for the most rain in June, the Mississippi in St. Paul is at a record high for June, and we have yet to record a 90 degree day in Minneapolis.  Normall we have 3 by now, and 30 or so for the year.

 

That's it for today.  I know this was a long one.  Just a lot out there today to show.

 

Jen

 

Veteran Contributor
Canuck5
Posts: 108
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

100 miles north of the Canada/US border (160 miles north of Minot ND) 6 " of rain in 24 hours.  Devastation to crops, roads, homes.  This is unprecedented for this area.  We normally get 10-12" rain per season, and not 50% of it in one day.  We are already nearly 200%  of normal yearly rain so add to the problem, soils were completely saturated prior to this storm.  We need a 2 year drought to reduce surface water ponds and lakes and get them back within their normal boundaries.

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,233
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

Careful what you wish for Canuck5, drought's can and do happen and they can be just as devestating as floods.

Veteran Contributor
Canuck5
Posts: 108
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

[ Edited ]

I've farmed both drought and prolonged periods of excess rain.  Both are demoralizing and difficult.  Both are economically devastating.  But if you held a gun to my head, I'd take a drought over a excess water ten times out of ten.  With a drought I've always found there is hope.  A two day rain, even if its late and does not undo present damage, can bring things back to normal quite quickly.  Excess water is a long term problem that is impossible to be rectified in a short time.  The problems of soil erosion, new lakes, lack of weed control, and damaged property will take years to recover from.  It really will take years to bring things back into balance.  The real rub is we need another disaster (a drought) to bring things back into balance.

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

Canuck5, I know it's been wet North of the border.  Given that's where all these Lows had been going and/or been coming from, you've been getting the brunt of all the Lows that have come through.  I sould include you guys in more in my forecasts and looks at the weather.

 

I'm not wure what it will take to break this cycle.  For most, it's not a bad cycle.  But, for those that are getting pummelled by this relentless rainfall, it's been difficult at best.

 

On the way up to Detroit Lakes, they are building that new HUGE powerline that eventually comes within 1/2 mile of my house and goes down to Rochester, and then I think points from there, maybe Chicago.  But man, what a mess they're having trying to build with these wet conditions.  Everywhere they go, they basically have to have matted so they can get the trucks and equipment in.  It has to be a huge extra expense that I'm sure probably wasn't in the initial budjet.

 

I'm out picking cherries off our tart cherry tree today.   We were going to go up to Door County in WI to pick additional cherries, but the cardinals and cedar waxwings have left me enough that I may not need to go up there.  So, it's time to do the pitting and then some more picking.  

 

Jen

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,108
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

Hey Jen - Just wondering - If you have any of the Cherry Trees that has the cherries wrapped in Chocolate - If so then if you have any extra's -  How about sending down a box to test out - :smileyhappy:

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

Canuck 5 - I agree with you.  I would take too dry over too wet anytime.  

 

Some years ago when I was farming, we had a 12 inch rainfall in our corner of the country.. It did ha HUGE amount of damage, but because it only effected about a 20 square mile area, there was no national or even county help for the washed out roads, and everything else that came with it.  I had drainage ditches washed out and others filled up with the silt from my fields, part of which we just had gotten cleaned out just before we sold the farm.  Put me on your side - I'll take it too dry.

 

Jen

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

No - sorry Ken - none wrapped in chocolate.  We use thema mainly for the juice, like I said last week, or now, we are freezing the whole cherry and I put them in (frozen) into drinks, primarily with Sprite Zero, my latest favorite soda.

 

Jen

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,233
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

Since you all don't think drought is as serious as too wet let me ask a question, how little annual rainfall do you consider a drought? Probably a unanswerable question and probably should be deemed percentage below normal. Being from Central Kansas, we've suffered drought way more than flooding and therefore I'm partial to drought being more extreme. I'm sure you consider drought anything below 20"-25" but I'm only guessing.
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: 6 - 30 Weather Update

[ Edited ]

Believe it or not Shaggy--looking at the average annual precip maps -- from a line north and west of Minneapolis only averages about 25 -28 inches per year. So I would think anything below 10 inches in a yr would be drought.

 

Wheras your area is --what -- below 5-8 inches/yr = drought?

 

We average about 48 here in the tropics of Tx -- in 2011 = only about 12-15 -- looked like a Hydrogen bomb detonated in the heavily wooded areas.

 

my  rule of thumb for any area is when they are approaching less than about 1/3 of average for year = drought.