01-16-2013 09:42 PM
probably on its way to 8 real quick........after that not sure..........its awful early to be bidding 8........long time till August or September........
the real kicker is $14.85........thats a strong bid, but just seems like it should be higher.........
01-16-2013 11:19 PM
MT at what prices in corn and beans would you start making new crop sales? I forward sold some new crop beans for $12.24 just before the report. I have not sold any new crop corn and still have some more new crop beans to sell. After this year I will not be as aggressive on forward selling grain as I have been in the past. I have been waiting for $6 to pull the trigger in corn but the price wants to hold steady around $5.40.... What do you think?
01-17-2013 09:27 AM
Why isn't the futures market reflecting that? July corn bids are 10 cents lower than are feb and march. Evidently the " market" isn't all that concerned about running short. Or are they just trying to fake us out?
01-17-2013 10:37 AM - edited 01-17-2013 10:41 AM
Richardson Int and Bunge ETGO both think SA will produce a record crop of soybeans, and this is priced in (by them at least). But, if we see the US dollar collapse sometime, beans will rally-- they are heavily connected. Soybean exports are above USDA expectations so far this marketing year, which may be limiting downside, due to large SA crop.
Corn usage and export is flat to lower. Ethanol is going to have no growth, for a while; livestock growth is almost nothing; exports are lowered due to the expensive price of corn. Exports are down year over year. Traders dont generally reward no growth stocks; nor should they make no growth commodities more expensive.
100 million acres is definitely a possibility, in terms of acres available to corn, from historical charts. We seem to be limited at that number. However, to make supplies more comfortable, we do not necessarily need trendline yields.
The only way I see things going up is one of two scenarios:
1. US dollar loses value
2. Weather becomes a scary factor
The probability of this drought ending in many areas is slim to none, a coin flip in others, and likely in some parts. I thought I saw a chart on this data somewhere? It indicated that the east corn belt might get some rain? Does this seem real or did I dream this up?
Markets are already pretty high, and very expensive for end users to keep up with. Eventually people just decide to quit doing a bad thing.
I sold some 13 corn at 230 tonne already. There is definitely the chance for a big weather rally based off of fear, rather than rational thought, this summer or spring; right around fathers day seems to do it, right?
But I guess we can easily delude ourselves either way.
01-17-2013 11:51 AM
Theres no guarantee, roarintiger, that current dry conditions will persist. The 2012 El Nino was supposed to bring a bumper crop, but it didn't. Our weather network told us that our season would be average in my area or even cooler than usual, and it was anything but. Weathermen can only see 2 or 3 days ahead at best. Only time will tell what happens.
For now, I think everyone's gotta have respect for the possibilities of what could and could not happen, rather than think that the doom of 13 corn is assured. As for me, I am cautiously optimistic that it is, but I am not about to lose respect for what improvements may or may not come, as they can always break a man.