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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

9.9B and 2.4B........

[ Edited ]

several yield reports starting to roll in as expected..........

 

the complacency of this market is impressive..........

 

too scared to buy..........too scared to sell..........

 

and since its probably only going to get worse in the supply side..........looks like its a waiting game to see just how bad........

 

a lot of talk about increased world production.........we seem to hear that every year.........and at the end of the day weather rules all........then we hear about infastructure problems to handle increased production..........and most of this additive production is simply more land being used.........however if we think about cheap grain prices and production, most of that land was idle for a reason........thus to keep it in production prices have to remain at elevated levels........

 

thus one big production year, and a price collapse.............followed by shortages in a few years and elevated prices again.......

 

"peak corn" anyone........

 

30's to 70's to 90's to 08' to 12'..............the cycle is getting shorter and shorter...........

 

have to manage just far enough ahead to keep on the curve, but not so far ahead to get caught outta cycle.........then throw a spin cycle of volitile weather (interesting weather patterns happening right now)............well pick your poison, start drinking...........

 

we may very well see $3 and $4 corn and $9 and $10 soya again.........but we shouldn't.............

 

EDIT:  informa numbers

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/informa-data-spark-revival-in-corn-soybean-prices--4963.html

 

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,263
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: 9.9B and 2.4B........

 i didn't think you had below 10 in ya.:smileyhappy:

 

if you sqench wkly bean chart (y - axis) going back to '04 or so current highs only show in bottom 25% of your chart, looks no different than '66-'72....so, '08 - '12 still part of same cycle from '73 - current. If i remember correctly, going back another 39-40 yr from '72-'73 puts you '32 - bean prices hadn't broken $1.50 before that. then, $4.50 quickly became high '34 - '36 or thereabouts, until '73. 

 

based on what you said i wouldn't be TOO short.

Senior Contributor
rightone
Posts: 217
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Try 8.8 and 2.3,

[ Edited ]

this round.

 

The 8.8 will end up 1 to 2 b high when it's all said and done for 012.

 

Cost affective cattle for every environment here.