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Senior Contributor
Posts: 323
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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$9 Soybeans 2017-2018?

University of Illinois sees high 8's or low 9's for soybean prices absent some dramatic change from current expectations.

 

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/02/weekly-outlook-2017-soybean-prospects.html

 

87.4 planted acres

84.7 harvested acres

48 bpa

4.162 million bushel

 

Now, to be fair I cherry picked their numbers.  Give them the respect of reading their sheet to see the ranges they discuss and their reasoning behind it.  You may well prefer one or the other end of their ranges.  I just took the middle.

 

Do you believe those numbers are reasonable?

Wil your marketing plan use these numbers?

What is the likelihood that there will be a further price rise giving a chance to sell at a higher level?

Will you put in some sell offers at attractive prices?

 

I have some Nov sell offers on the books.  I sold some Sep beans.  At some stage,I'll take the Nov sell offers off and execute whatever plan seems to be optimal.  How long to wait?  How much upside risk to accept?  How to avoid letting the market slide out from underneath?  (I dont' like options)

Honored Advisor
Posts: 13,295
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: $9 Soybeans 2017-2018?

I`m not smart enough to get too specific, but one of the gurus on USFR said "don`t be surprised if corn is only down 1 million acres"  because with all the talk of "plant beans plant beans" there might be some contrarians thinking they`ll stick a fat hog on corn.   But then you`ll have some bad news bears gurus saying it`ll be "90 million acres of beans". 

 

IDK, I`d look at that "48 bpa" I mean that could go down to "42bpa" pretty easily with the wrong weather especially if it`s "90 million acres" fringe and such.  November beans should hold $10 (fingers crossed) during Feb the insurance month, prices and such are generally crop insurance doesn`t make payments on price, so whatever is holding the price above $10 now will continue...after a white knuckle roller coaster of course  Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor
Posts: 323
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: $9 Soybeans 2017-2018?

Acreage numbers are always interesting to consider.  We in many parts of the corn belt are either CC or CB and not likely to change a lot.  Maybe the CC guys will sneak in a bean year now and then.  To me, the question is always the west and south and what they do.  If they don't plant wheat, what do they plant?  Or will wheat buy some acres this year?  If not cotton, then what?  Corn doesn't win against beans for those farmers, I don t think.

 

As far as the bpa on beans, any weather would affect that.  Illinois said right up front they were postulating a normal trend yeild and if your number is different you need to amend all their conclusions.  It's just a point of departure.

 

I don't have a lot to disagree with $9 unless things change, in which case all bets are off.