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06-14-2013 02:18 PM
Dollars to donuts Australia and Canada will declare themselves officially 'RR free' for market advantage in wheat supplies. That was the nut Monsanto couldn't crack before. They pushed for simultaneous introduction. Nobody wanted to take that risk in the face of strong opposition in the market.
06-15-2013 01:30 PM
The French are the best, really anti GMO,,,,,, yet down McDonalds hockeypuckgomo like no one else can.Busiest Mcd's is in Paris.
Wll our sww become feed? to much to mess up rations. No kidding, someone will get hungry and US white wheat will be exporrted and eaten..
Meantime for wheat peolpe the focus, if you are looking after your economics is the size of the SRW crop.
06-15-2013 05:45 PM
I do not mean to sound disrespectful in replying to this subject here or below. More so it is the endless someone digging up of something bullish wheat and 100% of the time being bullish when we sit in a 2.5 yr bear mkt. OK, the world is GMO nutso, some bit of a GMO strain has found its way into supply. OK. Blame MON, blame the CBT for this, someone else for that, poor me is the worst sin, harmful and tiring.
Lets look at this, vs DOOM and gloom, what happened when this has happened before? The world needs our white wheat, will we have to test each shipment ? Will others buy it instead ? What are the likely outcomes, vs doom gloom that darn MON. In my neighborhood many shop at whole-foods, where some food is "organic". They PROUDLY carry home their bags showing they CARE about being a good parent. Garbage, a whole another topic for another time but it is BULLcra_. This is similar,, oh my, we don't want to be seen allowing gmo tainted wheat, even if it is 1 bu of 3 million on our shelves. Basic of life, when you sin, you pay. (not exactly a sin, but a good metaphor) Creating some false mess where you are going to overpay, just to say my white wheat is GMO FREE!! is the "sin".
How can we benefit , adjust our tactics , is the good question.
II. Will anyone here discuss wheat supply/demand and its shift from 11/12, 12/13 and probable 13/14.
i. USDA's 1st shot at supply/demand by class is in the July WASDE. However any of us can build a pretty good proxy and need not wake up that day and be surprised ii. Is there a source to see what plans are underway for southern hemisphere expansion in all drops, particularly corn beans the wheats. Vs gibber.jabber, we need to remember the basic precepts of AG Econ 101 - high prices incite expanding production intentions>>> increased plantings. I think we need to be careful, we had 2, or 3 in some cases poor Wx that prevented faster responses to high grain prices, the rule didn't change, rather simply mother nature has to participate. She may not in NA in summer 2013 again, we won't know for 6 weeks. But if she does .. But with fat yrs of high farm income we can't rest easy and assume, 8 let lone 7 or maybe 6 is any middle range price for wheat in yrs to some.
Views, ideas,, critique me .
06-15-2013 09:22 PM
All I can say is that it has been the best 2.5 year bear market I've ever seen. I hope it continues.
SWW drawdown is the lowest in years. Interestingly the buy side has continually harped on the lack of business. Ahuh!
06-16-2013 09:10 AM
Maybe the most obvious answer it was transmitted by an animal or bird. Only need a few seeds and after a few years of growth and reproduction you have quite a few more plants. Sometimes the obvious answers are too easy.