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Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

A super bullish crop report

Is simply not in the cards.Futures rising and basis eroding which must indicate that endusers are not overly concerned or commercials already have plenty of inventory bought.

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

I think the basis eroding, as the price was going up, is a sign that the end users are trying to show us about what they are willing to pay as of right now, or else about at what point more farmers are willing to sell.

Veteran Contributor
Mike central IA
Posts: 120
Registered: ‎07-05-2011
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

Perhaps, but many are thinking there will be an abundance of new cheap corn with an early harvest that they can use to fill their late summer needs. Now they are just waiting, waiting, waiting-but it is looking more likely all the time that they took some poor advice. There will be some grain available, but I doubt it is abundant or cheap.

Veteran Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,439
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

What do we know about the amount of grain in farmers' hands?  My grain buyer knows how much I have left.  Does she know with her other clients, too?  Maybe so.  It's hard for me to have any confidence in an "on farm storage" number.  this will only gets worse as more and more farmers build bins.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,576
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

I wouldn't call it worse.....I'd call it better if it's in the farmer's bins.  I don't think that I'd be tellin' any buyer how much is in my bins.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

I'm not sure it's really about how much they're willing to pay, but rather how much they can afford to pay or their banker will allow them to pay.  Rumor has it another large ethanol plant in NE will shutdown in a couple of weeks.  Of course, crude is up 6 bucks as I type so things are definitely subject to change.  It's conceivable demand for corn in 12/13 could actually end up being less than 11/12. 

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 679
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

Ha.......two weeks ago all I heard was bellyaching that the strong basis was a sign that futures were "mis-priced" and somehow the system was messed up....now, fast forward and we just had a $1.25-1.50 futures rally ---and folks are now bellyaching that basis retreated sharply.....

 

kinda tough to have it both ways when you have one of the strongest short-term futures moves ever.....

 

but a few did figure it out and could get 7.50+ if they want to cash out today......

Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 781
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

Only If they listened to ray and set the basis
Veteran Contributor
redrotor
Posts: 68
Registered: ‎05-26-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

Basis did retreat a dime the last couple weeks, but shot back up 15 today with a still improving board price.

Frequent Contributor
ISUMan
Posts: 32
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: A super bullish crop report

I did listen to Ray and what he stated was the obvious.  We locked in our last 35K bushels at +$1.05.  Today we are in the catbirds seat.  Looking back I can't imagine how stupid I would feel if we hadn't locked basis in.  About as stupid as not selling $7 corn for multiple years in 08.  It's amazing how when things are super bullish you get paralyzed and the marketing plan can go out the window.