11-19-2012 09:50 AM
Soybean: we have 2 weeks of sun and dry weather after having Octuber with huge rain. These 2 weeks were great for many farmers, but others are suffering dry soil (10 cm deep) with wet floor below that. Yesterday we had 0,5 inche in Rosario and 1,5 inches in some areas of Cordoba. Not rain reported in other areas. 15% of planting is delayed and although we don not have any official estimation, I can say that we are not going to have a 55 mill T crop. In Buenos Aires many farms are under water and they need a Niña to plant.
Corn: in Argentina we have planting of first hand corn (second half of september and first half of Octuber) and second hand corn (second half of December and first half of January). Due to the rain, many farmers could not plant on time and 55% of the area will be planted with second hand corn. Of course yield is lower, but in years of dry weather second hand corn proved to be much better.
We cant do an estimation until we know exactly how many acres are finally planted, but we think that the crop may be of 25 mill T, and with that crop we can expect to export near 18 mill T.
11-19-2012 11:15 AM
Thanks for joining us in Marketing Talk. I'm sure a lot of folks will be interested in hearing from you as your planting and growing season progesses in Argentina. It looks like you are expecting a smaller corn crop than what the USDA is estimating (about 3 millon tons less). But, your soybean expectations may be about the same as USDA's latest estimate of 55.00 mt.
I'm curious. What are the farmers saying about marketing their crops? Are they all sold out of last year's crop and have they sold any 2013 crop?
11-19-2012 02:04 PM
Hello Mike, was a shame that the audio was not clear enough. This morning was much better! Did you record the conversation? Was it clear? I could not listen your last comment about corn sales in Argentina when I told you that 9 mill tns have been sold.
It was difficult to me to explain our market but the thing is like this: for 5 years the Gov has intervened the market with some regulations, and one of them was to ensure to the exporter a fixed quota of the market. With no competition between them, the price they pay to the farmers was a one with a big discount in relation with the FAS price.
This year the Gov anunced a quota of 15 mill T for all the market, and the exporters started to compete between them. Now the price is very good and farmers are trying to sell as much as they can. They are not selling to much right now because they had some difficulties with planting, and they dont want to compromise too much crop. Take into account that most of farmers dont understand or dont know how to operate in the futures and options market.
Why do we lost hectares in corn? Last season was very difficult and many farmes are with financial problems. Planting soybean is half cheap than planting corn, and many farmers dont trust the Gov and all its policies. In soybean the market is open and the Gov only charges export tax. Gov dont care about the price because we dont have domestic demand for soybean. However we did not lost as many hectares as we estimated in July/August because the market was opened and the price is record. I hope in a few years Argentina reach 40 mill T of corn...
11-19-2012 02:59 PM
PabloBLD I understand Argentina is one of the leading exporters of beef! How does you pasture rangelands looking? I know there is less acreage because the corn and soybean markets,but still interesting to know forage availabilities!
11-20-2012 09:53 AM
Our livestock sector is the 6th important in our exports and represents the 4% of them. However this lasts years we have been loosing markets.
In general, the sector has been moving to marginal areas because soybean is more competitive. Moreover, many big farms are now small feedlots, and the rest of the land is with corn or soybean. This year with the dryness was very dificult for them, but no with floodings we are not having too many problems.
11-21-2012 02:05 AM
I couldn't agree with you more. Pablo is smart enough to know that we all can learn from one another. Thanks ncil for your kind words for Pablo. He is a hard worker in Argentina.