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04-19-2012 09:24 AM
Just saw a report from Darrel Good and Scott Irwin over in Illinois that shows, with the planting pace where it stands right now -- and barring any catastrophe during the growing season (a HUGE variable), we could see corn yields about 2 bushels above trend:
"A smaller than average portion of the crop planted late supports the expectation for the 2012 corn yield to be about two bushels above trend, if there are no other offsetting factors later in the season."
So, looking out your back door right now, let's hear your projection: Below trend, trend or above trend...and why?
04-19-2012 10:04 AM
I would have to agree the odds of higher yields are better if we plant earlier. but the last words in your statement "if there are no other offsetting factors later in the season: is a big if, so I'm not going to make any prediction on a final yield.
04-19-2012 10:16 AM
From my experience, what happens after the seed in the ground seems to have the biggest effect on yield.
However, if you are going with stastictics, yields are generally the highest, when the crop is planted at the optimal time. However, if it turns cold and wet, a week early may be as bad as a week late.
In other words, yes, they have a point that less corn planted 'late' usually means a better chance for high yields, but reality tells me it is far from a sure thing.
04-19-2012 01:55 PM
I'm sorry but all these yield estimates are a total joke. We will grow 2 bushel above trend if there are no "offsetting factors" later in the season? Of course we will grow above trend if there is no stress later in the season. Every farmer in the US knows that. Also we have only planted 17% of the corn crop. That's a long ways from 100%. I'm neither a bull or a bear but some of this analysis from "experts" is just assenine.
04-19-2012 02:29 PM
Not corn, but we should have some monster yields in SC Kansas wheat. The wheat here was headed out before the normal last frost date. There is a long way to go, but we have some very nice looking heads. Normally we have a month of hot dry weather before it rains when we want to harvest. So far we have had very mild weather and adequate moisture.
If we still have moisture and an early harvest, we could have a lot of double cropped acres. A lot of guys got burned on that last year, but there will still be plenty of optimistic ones.
04-19-2012 04:32 PM
SW ks it is about april 22th to 28th -------average year. Problems fields like dry land and poor water are planted earlier to save the optimum ground and water for the "sweat spot" in the planting season.
We have had a few yrs when May planting was best time.------------Last year the best corn was planted on June 17th-------it survived the heat better.
Early planting is just a bragging right.
But if a "source" needs to mooooove the market to cash in a few funds positions then most of the trade will believe what they want to believe.
Best planting date depends on the July and August weather .
Life without HUGE SURPLUS GRAIN STOCKS, is still wonderful for production ag and traders alike. Even though some days give you air sickness.