02-21-2012 12:08 PM - edited 02-21-2012 01:32 PM
The trade is trying to get a handle on what the USDA/WASDE Ag Outlook Conference will produce in the way of Supply/Demand estimates.
What are your thoughts? It seems that Friday morning's corn and soybean ending stocks numbers will be closely watched. Any guesses? Or, do you have bigger fish to fry?
02-21-2012 12:22 PM
I highly doubt that there is anyone out there that thinks that this report is gonna have any bullish news whatsoever. Record high planted acres, trendline yields, and lower usage meaning a much higher carryout seems to be what everyone is predicting. I don't think that there will be any surprises. Gotta catch the fish before you can fry them.
02-21-2012 12:30 PM
Mike, my guess is that the USDA will project a 94-95 million acre planted number with trendline yield. After that it is all mathematics. We producers can scream at the top of our lungs how this is not possible because of this and that etc but until the weather starts determining some outcomes, there is nothing else to go by....MikeM
02-22-2012 07:01 AM
It sure sounds like spring planting will be favorable. I realize there is plenty of time for the conditions to change. But, if farmers had to go out and plant today, you might see that 95.0 million acreage number, huh?
I'm told Friday morning's the time to watch for market-impacting information coming out of the USDA Ag Outlook. We'll see.
02-22-2012 12:12 PM
I'm having a hard time seeing how the report could be deemed bearish considering the trade has already factored in roughly 95 million acres being planted and knows USDA will use trendline yield. I'd venture to guess old crop corn will have a lot more say in new crop prices between now and July than weather.