02-06-2013 02:25 PM
For Now this is somewhat gut feeling, as I have found that to work better than trying to make up data at this point but anyway.
So normally I would say 158, but if we put 97 mil ac. in ( and we may if the spring is dry enough to plant before it gets late, just depends on the farmers willing to risk planting corn in dry ground) we have to figure for marginal ground and drop that yield to 152.
Then adding the high possibility of drought due to beginning with no subsoil moisture at beginning of season, we drop that to 143.
So I will put it at 143.
143 * 97 mil. * 91.5 % harvested (which may be too high) = 12.69 Billion Bushel.
02-06-2013 03:39 PM - edited 02-06-2013 03:49 PM
Who are the one's that think it will be at or above trendline? 24% and why or how on record acres?
Is there really someone out there that thinks we will raise a 16 to almost 18 Billion bu crop of corn?
02-06-2013 03:59 PM
I think it is helpful to realize that statistically an average crop is 14B. Could it be 12 or 16 -- sure but both are a long shot. It is also helpful to realize that 12 is just as long of a shot at 16. That is why we are such an inverse to new crop and why $5 puts and $7 calls are close to the same money
02-06-2013 04:18 PM
I disagree, 16 is a very long shot. All the western desert that will be planted has to make Fed crop guarantee yields or better. We planted a boat load of acres this last year and did not make anywhere near 12billion. I will not argue 14 right now but 16+, I might just do a MT thing and bet a steak against that one.
02-06-2013 04:49 PM
That is why we have markets...... many people hit on a 17 in black jack. Might pay might not but over the long haul the house will win staying on 17.
14B bushels in our 17.
02-06-2013 05:10 PM - edited 02-06-2013 05:15 PM
Higher if acres drop far enough, lower if acres increase very much from 2012.
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02-06-2013 06:11 PM
I think with all the talk starting to resurface with the drought, that 145 might be a stretch as well. I agree, less acres means higher average yields, but are there any areas that have reached optimal conditions yet?