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Community Manager
John_Walter
Posts: 574
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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AgPoll: How useful 10-day forecast?

[ Edited ]

In tracking a couple forecasts for dates out on the calendar, I started to think more about how useful the forecasts are for various purposes. If a meteorologist says there's a 60% chance of rain ten days from now, that could mean one thing for how I view corn planting, another for whether the fish will be biting. How much do you rely on these relatively longer forecasts to make decisions? Thanks for any thoughts. 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,399
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: AgPoll: How useful10-day forecast?

The problem as I see it is how we interpret the forecast. Just because we've got a 60% chance of rain doesn't mean we will receive a drop, it just means 60% of the forecasted area should receive measurable precip. Factor in a certain percentage of error, and the predictability goes down even further. I use these forecasts to get general work arrangements made, but I wouldn't bet the farm on them. Temperatures are probably easier to predict than rainfall, but I've even seen temps way off from the forecast.
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,904
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: AgPoll: How useful10-day forecast?

[ Edited ]

for me the 6-10 and 8-14 work best when you track the day to day to day, etc--delta or change to see how they are trending--is an area in the forecast getting wetter/drier, cold/colder/less cold/warmer, etc over a few days? Also, is the area of interest expanding, maintaining or contracting with the cold, precip, etc?

 

 

.......it proved to work pretty reliably for the 4-5 week cool trend US had recently. 

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,904
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: AgPoll: How useful10-day forecast?

[ Edited ]

i agree with Shaggy on the precip last few months.............it has trended less or put another way, tended to be more "all over the map", pun intented, from day to day to day to day, etc.

 

This may have something to do with the peak solar activity we are in..........meteorology in general is only beginning to factor this variable into their work........and probably not to a large enough degree IMO.

 

....ie. lets track rain going back 3 days - 6-10 (i'll try to keep tracking to see how it pans). 1st - broad area of 1-3 degrees of green. 2nd - more specific epicenter of intense green(heart of belt) fanning out w/ lessening degrees of intensity. Today - entire system moving eastward.

 

THE TEMP thing doesn't appear to have backed down from cooler center/south US---and this remains aligned w/ NOAA's May monthly put out on Apr. 30.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,904
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: AgPoll: How useful10-day forecast?

[ Edited ]

John,

you shoulda known this poll would wake me up!! HA!

 

also, if you'll notice/remember, the numerous 2-14 day models the "experts" use have become more divergent or less aligned with each other---during this PEAK solar activity..........consider this!

Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,011
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: AgPoll: How useful10-day forecast?

" the only way a rain hurts you is if you count on it ------ make it wash u out of the field."  I have had a lifetime of seeing how right this old saying is.

sw
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 2,904
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: AgPoll: How useful10-day forecast?

Put another way, John,

 

the Volatility Index for weather is going parabolic.

Senior Contributor
Artifice
Posts: 392
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: usefulness of the 10-day- some it is all we got..

Good subject  John.

 

We wish longer terms forecasts had validity and to attempt to assuage our lack . We have to be guessing crop size. prices the WX crop size etc besides those who need to know for planting plans or cutting hay.  Reality is  long term forecast are useless, no advantage even though you can buy them and the govt spends. your TX $ mailing them.,

 

Last week is past, today is today and the next few days the forecasts have a strong positive correlation to actually be right (in the collective especially,   vs local, local is more mixed.)

 

To your question  --- The mkts trade the 5-10 day because that is where the uncertainty is and can be forecast with slight edge,  or better than 50-50 odds. But even there, there are nut meteorologists  who like to sound clever and be clever, some special insights. BAD idea, you want  100% objectivity,, period.   

 

You sll tell me zZI don’t think WX forecasting will improve over time ?

 

Producers need to do is build an array of outcomes and adjust his actions to best fit ,  considering any in the array will confirm.

 

Planters ? be at the ready, all greased and go at it when you can. What else is there to do with the 10 day? 

artifice
Senior Contributor
Artifice
Posts: 392
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: usefulness of the 10-day- some it is all we got..

inciteful posts sgaggy and c-s-x-.

 

THX

artifice