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Contributor
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Registered: ‎10-14-2011
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Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

Hey guys,

 

I am from India and believe me... our population is exploding by the millions on a quaterly basis. There just isnt enough grain here. Inflation at home is 9%. China is our neighbour and they are also facing a similar grain crisis.

 

The US food dept has no clue of 'real' grain demand.

 

Everyday, population is increasing and area under agriculture is decreasing. We Indians dont consume Corn like the Chinese but Sugar demand will start surging from October end due to the festival of lights here in India where every Indian consumes sweet dishes.

 

I would be very bullish on Sugar & Corn in the coming months. Sugar should again touch $0.35 and Corn should touch $7 - $7.50 on Asian demand.

 

 

Cheers

Neil

Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,700
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

Thanks for the input. Our grain traders are a good lot, but we are just scratching the surface of the potential from the new technologies.
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

I am sorry but the USDA has lowered the demand for our corn exports. Apparently they know something you don't ?...

I think our gov't has it's head in the sand and doesn't want to face reality.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 41
Registered: ‎10-14-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

you know the ethanol is what makes corn so high, with over 33% of world corn production going for ethanol, so what needs to be done and most probably will be done is the ending of corn ethanol subsidies, as it is not humanitarian to make the world's poor suffer

 

china has now booked it's corn needs thru march is what i read

 

i've also seen charts that show december corn contract never above $6 from oct 15th forward in any year before this, so it's already in the stratosphere

 

let's see about sugar:  it bounced off 25 along with all the other commodities bouncing off  their recent lows, looks like alot of congestion 28-30.... the European beet crop is well underway and the Indian and Thai crops fast approaching, there seems some concern that current price levels can hold.    However, while price seems to eventually bow to fundamentals, this need not
happen anytime soon.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,700
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

San d....one of my favorite places......

Careful with the ethanol figures....figures lie and liars figure.
I watch the trucks run daily from ethanol plant to feedlots. That corn feeds cattle and alcohol, I've seen the data misused for political reasons way too much.
Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,252
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

The world's poor are not suffering because of ethanol.....please have a clue.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 50
Registered: ‎01-13-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

I was thinking the world grain production number for ethanol was more like 1-3%  Does anyone have that number?

 

i like to see the responses about the DDGs as well, too many times you only see the one number about grain diversion to ethanol, but never see the credit for wet and dry distiller grains.

 

As long as I can remember, there are starving people everywhere, including the US.  Is a bummer, I know, but not sure the ethanol policy really caused it.

 

Here in Minnesota we have had ethanol blended since the 70's, and I am pretty sure there were hungry people around before that too.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,700
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

Euro-Asia dumped their food supply & starved millions in early 1930's wrecking world grain markets to prepare for "political" change & take over others, ie Stalin, for one. Without ethanol.
But fools will still follow the political hacks over the cliff.
Contributor
Posts: 7
Registered: ‎10-14-2011
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

I agree with you docharing. There is something wrong with the demand estimates.

 

Take WHEAT for example:- Every single Indian eats a staple bread called "Roti" which is made from wheat in all meals. Wheat consumption in India has nothing to do with global GDP whatsoever. Its the basic staple diet....."ITS A MUST IN EVERY MEAL".

With 1.4 billion Indians eating Wheat every single day.....and this population is exploding every day, I cannot understand how demand can be reduced.

 

If Wheat goes below $6.00 based on US food dept's estimates, then it would be a fantastic buying opportunity.

 

*Not to mention what could happen if any one of the top 5 producers see a drought in the next 1 year. If there is a drought in India next year, Wheat could actually rise by 20% - 30%.

 

**Indians would eat just "wheat & onions" if nothing else is available. Its the bare minimum staple diet. Hence, anything below $6.00 is a good buying opportunity I feel.

 

 

 

 

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 91
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Agriculture super cycle in Corn, Sugar & Wheat

I agree with many of the previous posters. World hunger IS NOT to blamed on ethanol. There was world hunger long before ethanol when corn was $2.00 or $2.50 per bushel and farmers were losing their shirts growing it! Many of the starving countries is the result of political corruption! There is so much food aid that never reaches the hungry because of that corruption by those Governments. Corn farmers in the U.S. could not continue to grow corn at a lose and the U.S. Government could not afford to keep subsidizing the cheap corn. That is one reason ethanol was encouraged to help stem the supply of foreign oil. The stats say that the world throws away about 30% of the food by way of the trash. The hungry of the world have been hungry for decades and ethanol has only been growing to were it has in the last few years. The food vs. fuel debate is all smoke and mirrors.

 

Kevin