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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,272
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

All I am going.....

[ Edited ]

To say is these acreage numbers being thrown around today are nuts............I could be dead wrong........or I could be dead right like last year (and don't question this as I don't wanna have to pull the post from last Feb and March)..............final word, if wheat and cotton come in at 71.5 we have at most 168 for corn and soya.......best case scenario would be a 94 to 74 split..........likely a 94 and 73 split........that means 96 equals 71 to 72..........again informas numbers border on f-ing crazy...........o and one last thing, if you are going to talk CRP numbers, look em up before you say, I hear a bunch are coming out...........it's public record, and it's not that many.........o and most of em are in non corn/soya states, and likely crap ground too........ Remember the 164 or 14 challenge...............

 

EDIT:  wasnt at the computer yesterday, so couldnt post my acreage chart.........here it is........my numbers may not match March 30th numbers, they didnt last year..........but by years end corn and soya sure did...........remember, I am posting what I think final looks like, not what all the "experts" think it will be...............

 

Acres in Millions     Total Total of 
 CornWheatSoyaCottonCorn/Soyathese 4TotalTotal 4 vs % of
200678.357.375.515.3153.8226.4315.70.71725
200793.560.564.710.8158.2229.5320.40.71636
200886.063.175.79.5161.7234.3324.80.72132
200986.459.277.59.2163.9232.3319.30.72764
201088.253.677.411.0165.6230.2316.70.72687
201191.954.475.014.7166.9236.0315.00.74921
2012 MT guess94.057.573.013.5167.0238.0325.00.73231
1996**79.575.664.214.7143.7234.0334.00.70060
Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
0

Re: All I am going.....

There is some crp ground and a few pastures coming into production this year in MN but it is all sandy non irrigated land in my area.  Won't yield well without a lot of rain and imputs.  Looks to me like a trendline yield will be hard to make with those acres added in.

Frequent Contributor
Threadkiller
Posts: 42
Registered: ‎07-30-2011
0

Re: All I am going.....

I can't believe these Informa numbers.  They are predicting 242 million acres for the four crops of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton....  the most acreage in the last 30 years for these crops was in 1984, at just over 238 million acres.    Add in some CRP acres, but subtract 28 years of urban sprawl, and i can't see how these acres are attainable.  Sunflowers, edible beans, etc. are competitively priced, so i can't see alot of those acres being lost to the big four.     

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 218
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: All I am going.....

I am sorry, I am the guy that going to plant the  corn.   I plan on planting 60 acres of hay to corn on the western banks of Lake Mich. 

 

I hope for 100 bu yield with all the Lake effect heat.  

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,574
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: All I am going.....

Well said, Threadkiller

 

You can't pull PRODUCTIVE acres out of thin air.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: All I am going.....

Boys, the USDA is very good at pulling many things out of thin air whether it be bushels, acres, decreased demand, etc... I agree these numbers are borderline insane but at the same time I have no doubt the USDA will print something bearish in a couple of weeks.
Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 144
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: All I am going.....

Before you continue bashing USDA, and I am no expert, but if you check, I think you will find that USDA has been fairly accurate the past 40 years or so,  Of course they are off occasionally, but our whining will not change the fact that they do a pretty good job. 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,272
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: All I am going.....

[ Edited ]

Van, couple of things......first off how do you know they are or were right or even fairly accurate, compared to what, I still contend that they have always had a mountain of fluff to work with so their errors were hidden, until now that is......second, its pretty bad when one guy with access to free info and nothing else can spend a few hours and nail the final corn and soya number for the year back in Feb.........third, this wasn't about the USDA, its about all ignorance including informas, if there's one thing that grinds my gears more than anything its uneducated comments and opinions, you wanna talk BS do it over whiskey, not print it......

 

EDIT:  this early spring has me concerned........nothing will hurt yields quicker than a 34K plant stand taken down to 28K with a couple weeks of cold and rain.........and replant will be an ugly word this year with seed in such a tight pinch...........plant all you want........its the 164 or 14 challange.........

Frequent Contributor
ISUMan
Posts: 32
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: All I am going.....

We've had a couple weeks of cold and rain the last 2 years and I've never seen a 6K stand loss due to cold and wet.  Now detriment to yield is another thing.  As far as the yield and acreage #'s they just don't seem to be possible.  One or the other maybe but not big acres and big yield.  I know one thing and that is there will be plenty of corn put in a little before the insurance date if the weather cooperates.  People are already chomping at the bit and it's only March 10.  As always it will be an interesting spring.

Veteran Contributor
Doug N
Posts: 109
Registered: ‎09-22-2011
0

Re: All I am going.....

Planting conditions are a HUGE part of potential yield. Getting the seed at the proper depth in favorable soil is the most important thing we control. If it stays fairly dry and most goes in good condition it will be a big leg up in yield this year. Population has some to do with yield but not everything. Last year fields that got mudded in and had perfect harvest stands (38,000) didn't break 100 bpa. Fields that were planted into better conditions but had reduced harvest stand (27,000) yielded much better, almost twice as good. We need to focus on what's in front of us, which is planting. Once the acres get in the ground then we can set our sights on summer weather. The market won't trade it until we get there.