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Veteran Contributor
Canuck5
Posts: 106
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
0

All things priced in?

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What does everyone think?  Has the market priced in the S&D's for this crop, or is there more volatility and price changes ahead of us as it tries to find "balance"?  We must be getting close to it now being what it will be, at least supply wise.  At this stage, can weather really make much difference to supplies?  When will demand take over as the predominant price determining factor?  Or will we immediately start trading potential South American crop size?

Any predictions for tonight/tomorrow price direction?????

Senior Reader
anthonykreifels
Posts: 4
Registered: ‎09-19-2012
0

Re: All things priced in?

We will break through the 14.09 November soybean price sometime this week.
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,576
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: All things priced in?

All things priced in?    Ha, that's a good one.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: All things priced in?

Priced in?! Ill agree with tiger on this one. If anything the trade has "priced in" the opposite of reality. Ill go out on a limb and say we see 15$ beans by oct 1. We are sub 3 bbu crop and declining by the day. Good thing SA is a really reliable source. We may need a lot shipped up river in the central Midwest by next September.
Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,108
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: All things priced in?

We're gonna move into seasonal tendency until much later. The lottery controls the market
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Shaggy98
Posts: 4,019
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: All things priced in?

$15 beans by 10/1.  Gonna need to kick it in gear real soon Buckley.

Advisor
WCMO
Posts: 481
Registered: ‎06-30-2010

Never

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Never "all things priced in".  Every day brings new information, or refinement of old information.  Weather is a never-ending factor.  In all phases -- planning, planting, production, harvest, transportation, useage, exports -- nothing is "all priced in" until it's over, and it's never over unless the world stops.

 

Volatility could be reduced by starting with reasonable expectations, then projecting/forecasting the final outcome based on reasonable expectations from that point forward.

 

 

____________________________________

"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson

"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
Veteran Contributor
Canuck5
Posts: 106
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
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Re: All things priced in?

So what you guys seem to be saying is the market has "priced in" what it knows, but what it "knows" is incorrect. I guess that's logical. And I have a tendency to agree. But what I find interesting and a bit perplexing is why, in the Information Age, it seems to be taking longer and longer for "the market" to find the real truth. I used to think that as a farmer I had a disadvantage versus the "trade" because they had more information than I, and always had it sooner. But I am beginning to think the tables have turned. What we farmers know about crop conditions and supply seems to take much longer for "the market" to learn these days, than it ever has.
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,222
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: All things priced in?

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some re-balancing may:smileysurprised: be in order in @ least 1 sector i can think of

 

Canuck - interesting thought processing - the way i word it - the mkt is the ONLY one who knows @ all times, if you will....................it knows itself and is ALWAYS correct at any given moment AND always knows when {& by what quantity} - to right itself when things get overly out-o-whack.

 

our job, or at least mine, is to get to know it as best we can (as in listening) - you know --that thing our wives' wish we could do better.:smileyvery-happy:

Senior Contributor
BF2012
Posts: 245
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
0

Let's see

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We have the Canucks with corn running out every orifice, Delta states averaging 240 bu/acre......Early yields coming in from every part of the country with reports of 240+ yields.    Matter of fact, I don't think I've heard a sub 200 yield yet . . . anywhere....and we haven't even gotten started in God's Country....Indiana and Central and Northern Illinois.

 

One elevator here offering $ 5.40 and 1/2 price drying premium till September 13-18....anything under 32%, but said they would take it wetter...lmao...I'm not making this up.  

 

My early corn black layered this weekend.....96 96 96 95 for highs.through Thursday...no rain since mid July here.   Remember that poster in college of two buzzards sitting on a tree in the desert - one turns to the other and says "Patience my ass, I'm gonna Kill something."

 

I'm gonna shell something.