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12-27-2011 09:28 PM - edited 12-27-2011 09:30 PM
12-27-2011 09:53 PM
Remember Weather markets usually peak on emotion before they really understand the fundamentals of them. Not saying your wrong but what if by Valentines day the weather has been priced in by the market?
The results will be bullish yet the trade will have already factored them in.
Also be careful drawing alot of correlation from a thinly traded holiday market out to a normal market.
But when you factor in that the Republican wimps will cave and give us the debt extension which will require Q whatever by our fed. We could just be in the shoot the moon phase.
But prolly not yet. Still holding to a June outbreak.
12-27-2011 10:31 PM
Jr. if the weather market lasts till the middle of FEB and we rally like we did the last 10 days we could see $2 added to corn and $4 to beans I think most grain farmers would be very happy. I doubt it lasts that long or we get those $ amounts added to todays prices.
12-27-2011 10:46 PM
A lesson to be learned, I will say this nicely as I can being as this isn`t the forum page. Those who post the bearish angle time after time after time are not looking out for your bottomline, they fall into two camps. The first are buyers of grain that want to talk you into selling and the second are producers that sold too soon and want company. I admit that hearing the opposite side is healthy and the bears will be right one day(perhaps 2012). But when they start in with the head and shoulder baloney and Fiberotchi baloney, understand Mother Nature bats last and she don`t care about lines on a chart. JMHO.
12-28-2011 02:14 AM
You might have a definition of 'the trade' that is different than mine but, the idea the 'trade' already has it 'priced in' is passe. In the digital age I believe a farmer doing diligent research, and paying attention to various news and information outlets, can be on a level playing field with anyone and any organization. As I've said many times, the futures market is usually the lagging indicator in many cases of a serious nature - which is one of the main drawbacks to futures as a guide.
The one area individuals are not likely to be able to compete is computerized trading. And individuals should not be involved in that area. In any case the fast moves aren't usually based on fundamentals but on computer models triggered by specific market behaviors, important or not, that cause a cascade in seconds that could only happen because of computers.
Another characteristic of 'the trade', as in floor traders, is the often whacky and creative stories, rumors and excuses they assign to moves on certain days. Just as we are out of touch with floor behavior they are often out of touch with real crop conditions and physical grain trade.
12-28-2011 08:50 AM
Charts started turning bullish weeks ago with bullish divergence on most indicators (prices making new lows as indicators-stochs, rsi, macd, trix, cci, -started turning up). Doesn't mean beans will go to 14, but did show bears had run out of momentum for a while and a good possibility of a rebound.
12-28-2011 09:00 AM
Good Morning Jr, MT, Pal, and everyone else. I think the one thing we all agree on is that there is no more "business as usual". A lot of farmers made a living in the past knowing that the lows were in the fall so store for the summer rally, usually gaining $.25, $.50 on a weather scare. Marketing wasn't something that was a big deal. We now have the internet which is a double edge sword, great for information, but also a great place to start rumors. The weather, no matter what you think the reason, has changed and needs to be followed world wide. I don't remember my dad ever caring if there was a drought somewhere else in the world. Nothing against him but he and my grandpa built our farm on sweat alone. Now I have to be up to date on the weather around the world, the price of oil, what's happening in the over commodities, the world currencies, and over countries economies. This market is not for the week. But I read what you all write and use it along with my own info to make my marketing desissions. I enjoy this market, that can move more in a day than the old "usual" market moved in a year. It's no one else's fault when I sell and the market rallies the next day. Just like I give no one else credit if I hit a home run. Thanks to all who post.
12-28-2011 10:47 AM
Why would somebody that sells too soon want you for company. I don't care if you get $3 per bushel more than I get. Have at it.
What you don't realize is that there are hundreds of readers here that cannot afford your reckless speculation. Some of us older and dumber folks are telling them to use caution in speculation. Sell some at good prices and hope to be wrong so that you get better prices for the rest.
These super bulls can bet the farm on a up trending market. Others cannot or should not. Some times you gotta know when to hold them and when to fold them. Advocating perpetual holding is is speculation, not marketing. After all that is the objective of this forum, isn't it. Marketing our grain.
I don't know why the permabulls are so offended when thay here a contrary voice. MY GOD, does someone have the gall to disagree with me.?
I'll say it here as plain as I can. I have never in my life hit the highest price offered and i would be considered delusional if I thought I would miraculously hit it this time. Thus i will take bite now and then because i hate like hell to take $4 after I passed up $6. That is more painful than being out of corn when it hits $7.
12-28-2011 12:09 PM
All I`m saying Don, is "Don`t ask a barber if you need a haircut". I watch a free site for entertainment purposes only and "...if we don`t hold $5.80 down she goes!! OOOO we`re gonna plant +95 mil acres of corn and we`re feeding wheat to beat the band $4 here we come!!!" That is "reckless talk" they want you to get all beared up so that you`ll sign your name on a contract that you`ll produce pennies above your cost of production, a solid 3 months before anyone pulls their planter out of the shed!! Hey, there`s one born every minute. This screaming of "Fire!!" just because cash corn hit $5.50 for a day or two is what it is.