10-28-2012 01:41 PM
There is no telling what will happen next week, especially on any given day, but the fundamental situation is pretty well set and bearish it's not. To make a bear case at this point one has to speculate on the outcome of S America (which is unwise) or still believe that the macro economics determine the course of grains (which it doesn't).
10-28-2012 04:06 PM
"A bull needs to be fed every day."
Not really. Only for technical traders who's timeline is only a few days to a week or so and try and get out after every surge. For the producer, who's timeline is longer, sometimes much longer, the physical trends over time are much more an issue.
10-28-2012 10:32 PM
This week........ steady at best------ a little more pre election selling unless we can see some good sales Monday or tuesday.
Obama reducing ethanol mandate after election? no chance
10-28-2012 10:48 PM
I would guess any time up to two weeks might be considered short term though it depends on the circumstances. If a trader was trading the election I would guess it would be on the basis that all the other traders are looking at each other wondering if 'They'll' trade the election, and then just one coincidence and they're 'trading the election'. But it won't have any efect on the market in general after a day or two. The election will have absolutely no effect on the grain trends longer term. Yeah, i know, anybody can concoct a storyline that fits their extreme ideological desires and throw it out in the traffic - and a complete waste of energy.
I see no reason why Obama would spend any time worrying about ethanol at this time. The market says there isn't really that big of a problem. The market may be wrong down the line but that's the future and we will wait and try and figure out whether there will be a serious problem. Right now a lot of people are indicating it's not - because of 'demand distruction'. They might be right, they might be wrong.
10-29-2012 06:56 AM
I'm of the opinion that even if the EPA backed off on the ethanol mandate, that the oil companies would still use it. We have invested too much in infrastructure and the companies have adjusted their blends too much to do without it now. Where else are they going to find an oxygenator and octane additive that is as low risk as ethanol and available in as much quantity?
10-29-2012 09:12 AM
I agree long term Palouser but the question was this week, and I see it as a tough week with no real new news and the election looming. Also assuming some profit taking for end of the month. I am very long the market and am holding my "Gambling" bushels in the bin. In no hurry to get rid of them for quite a while.