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Senior Contributor
bkadds
Posts: 318
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Any guesses on corn direction this week?

Tarabear running a pretty gloomy thread over at other site. Bears as prevalent here?
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,223
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

There is no telling what will happen next week, especially on any given day, but the fundamental situation is pretty well set and bearish it's not. To make a bear case at this point one has to speculate on the outcome of S America (which is unwise) or still believe that the macro economics determine the course of grains (which it doesn't).

Frequent Contributor
colorofmoney
Posts: 55
Registered: ‎04-30-2012
0

Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

A bull needs to be fed every day.
Extreme SWMN
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,223
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

"A bull needs to be fed every day."

 

Not really. Only for technical traders who's timeline is only a few days to a week or so and try and get out after every surge. For the producer, who's timeline is longer, sometimes much longer, the physical trends over time are much more an issue.

Veteran Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,501
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

Short term, like before the election?

What are the odds of Obama pushing EPA to reduece the ethanol mandate when he wins?

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,635
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

This week........ steady at best------ a little more pre election selling unless we can see some good sales Monday or tuesday.

 

Obama reducing ethanol mandate after election?  no chance

sw
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,223
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

I would guess any time up to two weeks might be considered short term though it depends on the circumstances. If a trader was trading the election I would guess it would be on the basis that all the other traders are looking at each other wondering if 'They'll' trade the election, and then just one coincidence and they're 'trading the election'. But it won't have any efect on the market in general after a day or two. The election will have absolutely no effect on the grain trends longer term. Yeah, i know, anybody can concoct a storyline that fits their extreme ideological desires and throw it out in the traffic - and a complete waste of energy.

 

I see no reason why Obama would spend any time worrying about ethanol at this time. The market says there isn't really that big of a problem. The market may be wrong down the line but that's the future and we will wait and try and figure out whether there will be a serious problem. Right now a lot of people are indicating it's not - because of 'demand distruction'. They might be right, they might be wrong.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,588
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

With the wind we are going to get, I hope my corn's direction is still upright and not laying flat on the ground,

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
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Pupdaddy
Posts: 618
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

I'm of the opinion that even if the EPA backed off on the ethanol mandate, that the oil companies would still use it. We have invested too much in infrastructure and the companies have adjusted their blends too much to do without it now. Where else are they going to find an oxygenator and octane additive that is as low risk as ethanol and available in as much quantity?

Frequent Contributor
colorofmoney
Posts: 55
Registered: ‎04-30-2012
0

Re: Any guesses on corn direction this week?

I agree long term Palouser but the question was this week, and I see it as a tough week with no real new news and the election looming.  Also assuming some profit taking for end of the month.   I am very long the market and am holding my "Gambling" bushels in the bin.  In no hurry to get rid of them for quite a while.

Extreme SWMN