10-17-2012 10:03 AM
Aussie wheat is now becoming the most expensive in the world - because they are having the usual problems of drought in the west, where the majority of their wheat is usually exported from. S America will not solve the wheat supply issues. We're hoping they'll solve some soy and corn issues (though I think it's interesting that some seem to think that S America can flood the world with soy and corn in the immediate future). It is true global supplies of wheat could be replenished faster than almost any grain but there is no assurance it will be.
We have an interval in which N American supplies are IT in terms of bird in hand, though a small bird. Black Sea supplies are limited and about gone in market terms. The outcome for prices this marketing year, especially in the next 4 months are entirely speculative.
Yes, I think there will be enough wheat. But markets are going to be extremely nervous and jumpy. As I said, markets are THE lagging indicator. They have not come to grips with divying up the supplies - and I see the US is now a net IMPORTER of ethanol.