01-09-2013 12:37 PM
Here we are expecting the USDA report very much because we need to see better prices in order to start selling soybean. While in Brasil 50% of the crop is priced, in Argentina only 9% was sell. Other years by now we had between 20 and 30%.
We are not going to have 55 mmt , but it is imposible to make an aquarate estimation. Most of them are blooming and same of them are setting pods. This month is critical, and we start having some dry problems in some parts. However many lands are still suffering the worst rains in years (Oct-Dec).
I wolud like to remind that most soybean could not be planted on time (Octuber, first half Nov), and I believe that will impact in final yield.
With a bullish USDA and strong demand that help prices to reach 1555 argentinians farms will start sell part of their crop.
01-11-2013 05:42 AM
Thanks as well Pablo.
A better plan for you guys down south (instead of the unsold and pray for USDA to save us plan) is to do what we have done recently.
Merely buy a February bean $14 call and be straight sold out of new beans in the SX contract.
The only possible bullish number in this report will affect the nearby (where all the specs live) far more than the deferred. So, I'd think you should protect yourself and cover up front.
We have been 100% sold 12 and 13 beans for quite some time and aren't too worried about this report.