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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

August 10 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 14 1/2 cents lower at $8.09 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract finished 12 1/2 cents higher at $16.43 1/2. The Dec. wheat futures closed 25 3/4 cents lower at $9.01 1/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil contract ended $1.21 higher at $54.41. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $0.30 per short ton higher at $494.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.

 

One analyst wrapped up the market activity saying, "No surprises on the grain report today. Everything was in-line with the average estimates. The numbers are historically bullish, going into next year. But, the market is do for a correction. When we come in Monday, if the weather looks better for late planted soybeans, today's high holds near term, Profit-taking could set in next."

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 6 cents lower at $8.17 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 12 1/2 cents higher at $16.43 3/4. Sep. wheat futures are trading 26 3/4 cents lower at $8.86 1/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil contract is trading $0.91 higher at $54.11. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.10 per short ton higher at $495.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points lower.

 

One analyst says, "says the market is trading the 'ole 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' psychology.
"We bought the dry weather all month, on rumor the crop report would lower production and ending stocks. When today's report confirmed the rumor we sold the rally," he says.
Since there was no surprise, in the report, the trade assumes all the numbers are priced in, he says. "So, they take profits. All the numbers were at the average pre-report trade guesses. The numbers are historically bullish, going into next year. But, we're poised for a pre- harvest correction, as this report seasonally ends the growing season and the weathers' impact."

 

Mike

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At 10:15am:

The corn market is having a diffifcult time staying in positive territory, trading only slightly higher. Why? One floor trader says, "The USDA corn yields were not as low as the trade wanted. Thus, the corn market traded lower, following the release of the data at 7:30am CT.
"The USDA estimates U.S. corn production at 10.77 billion bushels, when the trade was looking for a 10.5 billion number, or below," he says.
As a result, traders are hesitant to add to their 'long' positions, until they see yield reports, he says.
"The corn market is taking a wait-and-see attitude. But, if soybeans put in a 40 or 50 cent higher trading day, corn will go up with it," he says.

 

---Full story on demand.Here's a story that Jeff Caldwell produced that states the market better keep doing its job by putting pressure to end-users.

 

Mike

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WHOA! Did you see this?

--Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 290,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during the 2012/2013 marketing year.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $8.29. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 33 cents higher at $16.64. Sep. wheat futures opened 10 cents lower at $9.02 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil contract opened $0.92 higher at $54.12.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.27 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At 8:25am:

The Dec. corn market is reacting negatively to the USDA Reports Friday, trading 6 1/2 cents lower at $8.17 1/4 per bushel. Nov. soybean futures are 12 1/2 cents higher at $16.44. Dec. wheat futures are 20 1/2 cents lower at $9.06 1/2. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $2.40 per short higher at $497.00, and Dec. soyoil at $0.45 highwer at $553.65.

 

Mike

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USDA Says:

 

U.S. Yields

Corn=123.4 bu./acre vs. 146 bu./acre in July.

Soybeans=36.1 bu./acre vs. 40.5 bu./acre in July.

 

U.S. PRODUCTION

Corn=10.779 bill. bu. vs. 12.970 bill. bu. in July

Soybeans= 2.692 bill. bu. vs. 3.050 bill. bu. in July.

All Wheat=2.26 bill. bu.

 

HARVESTED ACRES

Corn=87.361 acres, down from June 1.49 million acres

 

Soybeans=74.635 million, down 680,000 from June Acreage Report.

 

 

REACTION:

One analyst says, "USDA was very aggressive in the yield cuts, but somehow made the carryouts stay above their patented 100 million bushels in soybeans and 650 million in corn.
 
We need to see significant price rationing in the soybeans to achieve USDA’s usage numbers, because with a yield as low as 36.1 bushels/acre we have NO CARRYOUT at the current usage. Beans must move HIGHER to slow down usage.
 
Corn really doesn’t need to move higher to ration demand, it just needs to stay here at $8.00 or higher, if it sets back to $7.50 it won’t ration demand, so steady to higher would be enough to ration the corn demand, it will just take more time.
 
Honestly, beans are still way too cheap at $16.45 Nov 12 with this yield. Scary to even write that, but that’s how I see it.
 
Surprisingly a little bearish to the wheat, and if wheat stays below $9.00 corn won’t move higher," he says.

 

--Another analyst says, "The Report, on its face, is bullish.
"But, given recent trade talk of disaster out there, these estimates are probably pretty much in the market.  That said, I see nothing here to send markets down except for liquidation trading.  We should be higher. But,  we kind of already have traded these types of numbers.  No reason to sell, but I bought these ideas already," he says.

 

--Yet another analyst says, "The corn per acre yield figure was reduced dramatically toward the low end of inductry expectations. The resulting carry-out, or ending stock figure for the coming crop year of 650 million bushels is well below the traditional comfort zone of about one billion bushels and approaching a level many perceive as critical for efficient supply chain logistics. This should provide continued support for corn prices in the near term, but many traders have factored this type of scenario into corn prices akready. Soybeans are very tight, and depending on the weather over the next few weeks the soybean balance sheet could become even more critical than that of corn. The damage to the corn crop is already done, soybeans have the potential to tighten even further if it does not rain in the coming weeks. The current projected carry-out for soybeans of 115 million bushels is dangerously low, any further
reduction could mean soybeans take the spotlight from corn between now and the next report. Further tightness in the soybean balance sheet would be extremely significant and put dramatic upward pressure on prices, but traders should use extreme caution and keep an eye on the weather, which will dictate the future of the soybean crop. Any significant rain event in the next few weeks could pressure prices for soybeans dramatically," he says.

 

Mike

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At 7:20am:

--Taiwan bought 58,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for Oct.l delivery.

 

Mike

------

At 6:10am:

Early calls: Subject to this morning's USDA Crop Production and August Supply/Demand Reports. The data will be released at 7:30am. Overnight, the corn is 4 cents higher, soybeans 5 cents higher, and wheat is trading 1 cent higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.17 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, after China released weaker-than-expected economic data Friday.

World=Lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 129
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
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Re: August 10 (Report Day)

My predictions:  Corn--11+ billion    beans-- 2.4+ billion.  Opening--- Down limit in corn.  down 25 in beans.

 

Anybody else willing to predict?

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,643
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: August 10 (Report Day)

Very real possibility of this report not being taken as anything but a comic book if the #'s are very out of line with most of the prereport  guesses out there. They will be waaaaaaay behind in yields/acre and that will discount all the other #'s in the report except carry out.

 

Too many credable reports of lack of grain in the fields. Going to be very hard to crash this market more than a day or two when it just isn't out there. Basis is jumping UP here the last few days driven by the ones USEING the crop. It just is not crossing the scales. Reports here in my area have yields crashing in the corn fields. This year is a nation wide #6 disaster...

 

2   hot

2   dry

2   long

------

6

 

 

The USDA can NOT trump Mother Nature.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Frequent Contributor
Redpower410280
Posts: 46
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: August 10 (Report Day)

I hope it is down hard I would like to get in before they realize the crop is below 10 billion and we push $10 on the board.
Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 160
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: August 10 (Report Day)

Just thinking on corn . 25% very poor condition, what some call unharvestable but something will be used even if it is just poor silage and not accounting for seed, sweet,white,  what normally  is silage  and anything else usually taken out of the planted acres of 96.4 and go off of the estimate last month of 146 so 72.3 x 146 gives us a crop of 10.555.8. Of course take that many acres of the harvested and the yield number might go up some, more then I think.    more likely to print a number closer to 11-11.5.  I would say trade will be disappointed with the numbers.

Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 966
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: August 10 (Report Day)

Traders on the CME floor yesterday afternoon pegged corn yields at 127 and beans at 37, in case you missed it here. So, what are the odds that USDA will come within 10 bushels of each of those numbers in a few minutes?

-----------------------------------------------
Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: August 10 (Report Day)

farsider,

 

Are you most interested in the harvested acreage numbers, this morning? Just curious.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,200
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: August 10 (Report Day)

all about total bushels..........

 

likely print something neutral to bearish.........not so much to keep the lid on things.......its just what they do.........its all about finding a balance of the slow slide the USDA likes to do and the fast slide mother nature did to us........

 

early corn hitting the market.........plus some SA corn........and no one really know what next year looks like.......and some wheat around.........means corn is probably fairly priced if demand for exports tanks to near nothing.......ethanol trims some.......and feed too.........

 

soya are in a strange situation..........SA is all but out.........US is all but out, with harvest coming........will they print a big hit on soya or balance a tight book........you know SA is going to try like heck to print a big crop...........I am more scared of soya, as they are volitile either way........could move $3 either way.........although likely setting closer to the bottom than the top............soya have a limit move I can imagine that some shorts will be put on.........$17 soya for new crop is dang good............

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 397
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: August 10 (Report Day)

The interesting number will be the carryoit and how they try to fudge numbers around.
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 770
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: August 10 (Report Day)

Had the insurance adjuster out the other day.  I live in SE NE,  which was the Garden spot until July 4th.   I wanted him to look at the corn before I chopped it,   this was my worst field, he said betwenn 25-30 bu /ac.  BUT by the time the ears and kernels dry down I'm not for sure we'll get half that in the combine.   I'm looking at an average around 50-60 on the corn on my farm.   I hope, I was in another field and I can walk 10-20 steps where all I have is barren stalks.  

 

The adjuster was for NE NE, course they have been drier up there all along.   the BEST corn he found was 30bu/ac in his area. 

 

I think we need to throw 88 out the window, 74 also, maybe even 55, 56, we might be down there with the dust bowl days,

we honestly could have a national average yield around the 100 bu/ac mark.   

 

You just can keep adding in 50, 50, 30, then through in a few 200 from up north and maybe  a few 180 from the irrigated country and get enough corn.   

 

I hear alot about shutting down the ethanol plants.   WE STILL WON'T HAVE ENOUGH CORN.   

 

I don't think anyone really realizes how bad it is in the field.