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Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,569
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

For the Aussies it has been dryness frost and now rain in the SE. There is a wide divergence on prediction for Aussie production but it seems clear that a huge crop has been dinged and the final will be more modest in amount and quality.

 

FAO predictions on Argentine wheat is heading toward the low figure that the government let out and then retracted (below 9 MMT). In this case it is dryness and previous frosts that were more damaging than many initially thought.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 481
Registered: ‎10-18-2010
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

Pretty forwrd to sssue the Aussie crip is dinged, Austrialia is large and the wheat groing regions are spread out a fair amount.Odds are net fo a Trndeline crop. Annually there are some areas with less than idead confidions, that is where we start projecting crop size..

 

Argentina has a less than Trendline crop, widely known. Harm from "dryness and previous frosts have been exaggerated.  Govt always outs out  negatives  hoping for higher prices.

 

GOOD  marketers use attempted manipulations to SELL into.

CBT  DEC 13 srw is 649 - 3 today.

 

You might consider reappraising your approcah to market analysys,

 

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,569
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

I'm forwarding information. There is no opinion involved. And no analysis.

 

I find it odd you can't tell the difference. I know your opinion because your responses are uniform, repetitive and lacking in substance, and definitely opinion, errant though it might be.

 

Be informative and creative in your approach. You are smart enough to do that. But you seem to have the knack of holding onto obscure grudges that I've only seen in some self doubting academics. Reminds me of the old saw:  "Academic politics is the most vicious and bitter form of politics, because the stakes are so low. Beyond that, whatever your motivation for minimizing information you don't like (for obscure reasons I can't fathom) you have quite a record for being wrong, as proved by subsequent events. Such as the frost in Argentina and Brazil. I could make a long list.

 

 

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 75
Registered: ‎09-29-2013
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

frost in australia is worse than thought but will be counterbalanced by better crops in west australia so just a slight downgrade in tonnes in aust

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Senior Advisor
Posts: 4,437
Registered: ‎06-19-2011

Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

You need to use spell check a little more often pritch. Well on second thought never mind, I'm not planning on reading very many more of your comments. Besides, usually jumbled and can't decifer them anyhow.
Senior Contributor
Posts: 502
Registered: ‎05-14-2010

Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

    I deal in some very small commodities compared to the grains and are just as cyclic.The pritches in this area are always sold out when pricing gets favorable,and are also good at feeding the pipline when things go south.(inventorie is a bad thing) in their oppinion.When thing go south the comments are always base on pure human emotion of more reasons the commod will stay down or not get any better for a long while.Those with a cool head and a respect for inventorie and what it realy cost to produce only slightly feed the  pipeline and try to utilize any diversification posible to build a wave of the lagging commod.In the end it pays handsomly and all of the negatives then admit they did not see it comming! Keep posting Palouser,much enjoy your insight!

Advisor
Posts: 1,181
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

Wheat is still a bear market guys.
Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,569
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

Maybe you can do what Pritch/Artie can't. Explain how that relates to crop information.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 481
Registered: ‎10-18-2010
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

Pritch fo0rwarded market informatiom, . wee reply.

 

"Maybe you can do what Pritch/Artie can't. Explain how that relates to crop information."

13 datys ago our last interchange you suggested I reevaluate my method. I suggested maybe you should.

I saw a continued bear mkt. 13 days, ll down ssince. but pritch "can't". 

 

EU crop seeing record some records, The Brits, bigger wheat crop ever.

High prices ffor 2 yrs =s unleashed credit for planting/growing.

 

Shaggy, p l e a s e, why would you read my posts, put me on delete.

 

ray H, sorry, what bothered you ? when I suggested revauation? just sending back what palouser sent me 10 days go.

gandergoose, no ill meant and a bear slant is allowed here.  no?

 

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,569
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Aussie, Argentine wheat downtrend continues

Pritch, I don't care about your outlook and never have. I don't predict prices - and never have. I'm an opportunist because i can afford to be.

 

But you seem to have some emotional need for me to adopt your viewpoint even though it has nothing to do with what I'm interested in or do. That's your need , not mine.

 

Carry on.