03-20-2012 07:13 AM - edited 03-20-2012 02:55 PM
Here's the final damage for today: May corn down 16 at $6.47 1/2, May beans down 21 1/2 at $13.45 and May wheat down 9 3/4 at $6.42 1/2. Ouch. So, anybody do any buying today, or is this going to continue? Sounds like maybe we've seen our "short-term spring top," at least one analyst said today. What do you think?
Well, B-Team's out for the day. Anybody have any big ideas for Mike to whup the cold/virus/whatever it is he's got?!
Have a good one! Stay safe out there!
Corn and beans are really taking a whuppin' at mid-day here. May corn's down 11 1/4 and May beans are down 18 at $13.48 1/2. May wheat's keeping a little ahead, but still in the red at $6.46 1/2, down 5 3/4.
Chatted with a trader a few minutes ago -- wanted to see what the trade's expecting out of this acreage report next Friday. Sounds like 95-96 million's the range the trade's projecting for corn acres, and 74.5 to 75.5 for soybean acres. Both pretty big numbers, but not as big as some other projections out there.
Another thing he said: Keep your eye on China. "With their economy slowing and with China clearly telling us they want to keep their economy slowing by raising gas prices, they're saying their economy is weakening. Housing data came out earlier this week and they said their economy's slowing in that direciton. If slowing, do they not buy as much grain? They have not bought this year as much as last year."
That's the latest the B-Team's got! Anybody getting any more decent rain today?
'Risk off's' the theme of the day today, it sounds like. Traders must really be paying close attention to this early planting talk and favorable weather out there, and that's really got the bears running so far today. May corn's down 19 1/2 cents at $6.50 3/4 and May beans are down 19 1/2 at $13.47. May wheat's down 9 3/4 at $6.42 1/2.
Well, Marketeye emailed me a couple hours ago and said he's feeling under the weather. Plus, he's got hogs to feed this morning on top of that. So, he's having a heck of a morning!
So, the B-Team's in today. Let's hope that sends 'em higher today! Unfortunately, that's not happening yet -- overnight prices are lower and it looks like that weakness could spill over into this morning's open. Here's what we're hearing.
The big story of the day, though, appears to be continued talk of planting. I know we had a good shower yesterday here around Des Moines yesterday -- nothing major, under half an inch, it sounds like. But, it sure doesn't feel like March out there. And now that we've officially hit spring today, will the talk -- and more importantly, the planting action -- pick up? What are you thinking?
More from the B-Team after bit! Hope everybody has a good one today!
03-20-2012 07:22 AM
Is it Turnaround Tuesday or the same as yesterday? There really isn't a lot of information and wondering if we are positioning ourselves to go higher later in the week or is the rally over? Who knows but I am buying the dips. Im hoping it goes up.
03-20-2012 07:33 AM - edited 03-20-2012 07:34 AM
Me thinks the trade is turning bearish with all the talk of ground working perfectly, last of lthe nh3 going on, coc fields everywhere, trees budding, green-up of lawns, early planting talk, and nice, widespread rain showers. Who wouldn't turn bearish, if everyone plants their fields anolg with the road ditches to corn.
I'm sure not standing in front of the market mood swing.
03-20-2012 07:38 AM
Anybody know how offten in a short crop year that the highs are put in the way they are acting now?
Most times my memory tells me they do it in a few limit moves up and down then die off quickly.
03-20-2012 07:58 AM
Usually you get a few blips up, not limit moves, but significant moves up, but never will it bounce up to the highs on the price's slide downward. Sort of stair steps down the slope with steep ditches at each step apex.
Perhaps Friday's close was the spring high? Sure looks like it right now.
03-20-2012 08:58 AM
With the great planting weather, I am sure farmers want to get a start to the planting season, but is that smart considering we have a long season ahead? I do not know. With the current prices we have right now does that change any planting intentions? I do not think so.
Do we believe the USDA reports on the tightnest of supply in the coming months or do farmers truly have their crop in their bins?
I still think that we can go higher based off of that and I have not even brought out the yields from Brazil and Argentina.
03-20-2012 09:25 AM
One analyst just confirmed to me that if we close lower today than yesterday, it's definitely a sign the short-term top is in for both corn and beans. So, anybody think that's right? Right enough to be buying now with the hopes that next Friday's plantings report might fuel a move higher?
03-20-2012 11:34 AM
Just talked to a trader who said the ranges are about from 74.5 to 75.5 million acres for soybeans and about 95 to 96 million acres for corn. Both are definitely higher than estimates a couple weeks ago, but he said CRP and cotton will likely take the hits.
He also said while the Dollar's kind of ruled the roost in terms of influence on the grains, China's slowing economy will exert the most pressure in the next few months. And, right now, that's looking more bearish than bullish. This morning, China announced it's raising gas prices, and earlier this week, officials there annouced a slowing in the nation's housing sector. So, there are clear signs that economy's slowing. Will that mean they'll buy less grain in the next year?
Also heard some speculation about that big corn purchase last week. Sounds like it was either China (like a lot of folks were speculating) or Mexico, since they've had a pretty rough crop year in the last year.