11-02-2012 06:37 AM - edited 11-02-2012 02:53 PM
Thanks again for bearing with the B-Team this week. You all make it fun! Hope you all have a great weekend! Go Wildcats!
Here's today's wrapup:
So, that last remark came with a caveat I forgot to mention that the trader just pointed out to me. The static level of prices where they were about half an hour ago was assuming that we would see at least some stability in the outside markets. But, crude oil and the Dow are both slipping early today, so that could fan the bearish flames a bit more than earlier expected today.
One big macro factor today was this jobs report. Previous estimates were for the economy to have added 125K new jobs, and the report showed 171K. Unemployment's still sitting at 7.9%. So, it's fairly neutral, it sounds like. What do you think?
A trader just told me that he thinks, despite some pretty bearish news all-around this morning, volume's still pretty light, so the influence of things like lower-than-expected export numbers and improved crop weather around South America probably won't have as much of a negative impact as it normally would. And, there's still the demand situation lingering in the background despite today's export numbers. So, add it all together and he said he thinks we "will build support just under these levels, then watch the macros."
And, just in the time between I talked to him and typing this, the slide in January beans eased by a cent and a half. So, maybe we chop around at these levels the rest of the day? What do you think?
Did somebody say Export Sales Reports? Here we go:
Corn: 167,900 MT; previous trade estimate range was 100-400K
Wheat: 362,900 MT; previous trade estimate range was 300-600K
Soybeans: 741,200 MT; previous trade estimate range was 500-700K
So, mostly neutral-bearish. One trader just told me that better rainfall prospects in northern Brazil and a drydown in soggy southern Brazil and Argentina could pressure prices today, too.
Well, fortunately, it's the last day of the week when you'll have to be bearing with the B-Team. Thanks for making me look way smarter than I really am all week!
Anyway, on to today's prices: Looks like that "light" profit-taking either got stronger overnight, or the bulls just flat ran out of gas. Looks like early calls are mostly lower: Corn 1-3 lower, soybeans 8-10 lower and wheat unchanged to 2 cents lower. As of 6:00 AM CST, December corn was 1 3/4 lower at $7.49 1/4, December wheat was 1/4 lower at $8.68 1/4 & January soybeans were 9 1/4 lower at $15.50 3/4.
So, what's the deal this morning, you think? Just the see-saw making its way the other direction?
For you guys in the eastern Corn Belt: Is all that Sandy-induced rain starting to dry up and let you get back in the field yet?
More in a few...
11-02-2012 06:59 AM
11-02-2012 07:22 AM
Fields are very soft here in NW Ohio.....Water lying in a few spots. I doubt that many combines will be out in the field until next week. We also had about just .6 from Sandy, but it has been raining .3-.5 every three or four days here for the last couple of weeks. The ground is fully charged here with moisture, tile lines have been running. I would say beans are about 75% harvested and corn is about 40% in this neck of the woods.....a long ways to go yet.
11-02-2012 07:31 AM
Thanks for making me look way smarter than I really am all week!
Your welcome but it wasn't that hard!
BTW MSU over Nebraska by 3.
I gitta bet with a friend that the loser of the bet has to wear the opposing teams shirt all day next fri. I haven't ordered my huskers shirt yet!
11-02-2012 07:47 AM
Risky move JR,
You might get covered up with red shirts coming from Kansas addresses.
Anyway ------------------ save your money on that one --------------- won't be necessary.
11-02-2012 07:47 AM
Hey, JR, the real reason you feel smarter is because you're in the same conference as those Cornhuskers now! Remember, N for knowledge! (sorry to all our Nebraska friends...I'm a K-Stater, so I come by it honestly! HA!)
Hey, great to see the Parlor Pit report this morning!!
11-02-2012 08:01 AM - edited 11-02-2012 08:08 AM
Better get that Husker Shirt order!!!!
Being alumni of University of Nebraska ( "where we put the N in knowledge" I always had mixed feelings about that slogan)
as I as saying I miss the Big 12. Playing in the Big 10 isn't the same.
Pelini has to win out in order to keep his 9 win quota. That is the bench mark at NU no less then 9 wins in a season, every season.
I honestly hope K-state gets to play for the national title.
Is there exports out this morning???
11-02-2012 08:45 AM
I'm afraid the 'Cats may be the odd man out unless they can just pound the stuffing out of everybody the rest of the season. I'm certainly not counting any games left on the schedule as easy wins. Going to be tough...
By the way, we'll have Informa's crop numbers here at 10:30. I'll dig 'em up when they get out!
11-02-2012 09:46 AM
I wish I could agree with you, but I'm for the big N.
Honestly, in what other State, can you walk around, wearing bright red bib overalls, a hat shaped like a giant ear of corn, carrying a red and white giant foam finger, and no one thinks anything odd of it?
GO BIG RED!
11-02-2012 10:34 AM
Highyields, why do you think we bolted for the B1G? It was because getting 9 wins in the Big 12 with the way we play would have been next to impossible. The only automatic qualifying conference worse than the B1G is the Big East. I also hope KState gets to play for the NC because Snyder deserves it. KState fans need to be the biggest LSU fans around come Saturday.