07-13-2012 08:49 AM - edited 07-13-2012 03:18 PM
Just saw a report just now, too, that shows the head of PFGBest (or 'PFGWorst,' as some traders are now calling it!) was arrested earlier today and charged with "making and using false statements to a regulatory agency." Sounds like he's due in court later this afternoon.
By the way, we finally got a little shower here in Des Moines this morning. May have amounted to a little bit -- rained pretty hard for a while earlier, then kind of tailed off. I hope the heck it slows down and drops a few inches on everybody in its way east!
Well, here we go...corn's slipped lower, with nearby 2 1/4 lower at $7.30. Wheat's on its way lower with corn, with nearby trading 3 1/2 lower at $8.50 1/4. Soybeans have a little more legs at $14 1/4 lower, trading to $15.43 1/4.
One story of note here out in the last few minutes is that expectations are for a heck of a soybean crop in Brazil, and that's got some analysts expecting their crop to eclipse the U.S. crop in 2013.
"Producers are going to reduce their corn acreage in the summer, invest a little more in technology and see if productivity compensates," one analyst there says in this report.
So, after the rumors earlier this week that South American beans were headed this direction, do you think this kind of news here today will fuel more rumors like that down the road, especially as our crop continues to deteriorate?
Looks like traders are evening up their positions before they head out the door today ahead of the weekend, and that's got the sharp gains from earlier trimming back a little. Everything's still in the black, though: Nearby corn's 3 1/4 higher at $7.35 1/2, beans are 17 1/2 higher at $15.46 12 and wheat's 3 higher at $8.49 3/4. But, if you're riding the bull, don't worry...traders don't seem too optimistic about the rain in the forecast. Here's a little more on that.
So, maybe hitting $8 in corn is out of the question today? What do you think? Are we going to slide into the weekend now?
By the way, in our yield projection poll I put in yesterday's B-Team Report, now 35% say they think this year's corn crop will yield less than 120 bu/ac. Voted yet? What do you think?
Will we see $8 corn today? It all depends on this afternoon's forecast, according to John Roach this morning:
"Today’s close will be dictated by the afternoon forecast. Right now traders on the CBOT floor this morning are debating if corn will hit $8.00 today or early next week."
Think we'll get there today?
Well, the reason I'm a little slow on the draw this morning is I was distracted looking out the window -- earlier this morning, there was a nice, promising-looking dark hue to the sky off to the west. There were some storms that went north of Des Moines here earlier this morning, and the edge of the system just made its way over us. I think I counted about 2 or 3 dozen raindrops! Just enough to knock down the dust for 10 or 15 minutes! I must not have done enough of a rain dance yesterday!
So, what can we say? Another day of weather markets, another day of double-digit gains to start out. Corn's about 12 higher, beans are about 26 cents higher and wheat's about 14 higher. Do I sound like a broken record yet?
Chatted with ol' Marketeye yesterday evening. He said those little twin traders of his are doing well. He said between changing diapers and fixing up bottles, he has barely had time to do anything else! I told him to wait until those guys are about a year old and are screaming and crawling and really raising cane!
One more note -- here's a photo Laurie Bedord from our staff shot earlier this week up around Beloit, Wisconsin. Won't be too unfamiliar of a sight for many of you, I won't guess! How do your fields compare to these?
Hey, be careful out there today on Friday the 13th!!!
07-13-2012 10:03 AM
Jeff my fields are as bad or worse. The big unfortunate thing this year is that my county as a whole has received nice 1 inch plus rains while guys like myself in the southern most part of the county got nothing last week. This is a great thing for those folks but when I called my local FSA office they told me Branch county hasn't been declared a disaster area yet since things are not as bad here as they are to our south..... That's real nice considering I missed crop-saving rain by 4 miles and may not be eligible for the same benefits such as low interest government backed loans that folks 1 mile south of me in Indiana would be. Our corn is toast, but we are praying for a miracle rain to save our soybeans.
07-13-2012 10:22 AM
BSF: are you not eligible due to the fact you are a "nieghboring" co to a declared disaster? State lines may not make a difference in this case... check it out.
07-13-2012 10:28 AM
Man, blacksand, I wish the dang sky would just open up and unleash on you there. Lord knows you all deserve it after the year you've had so far! I'll keep doing that ridiculous rain dance I did yesterday for you! Ha!
Hey, Hobby, did your farm down in NWKS catch some of that rain last weekend? My folks had jsut shy of 3 inches over in Sheridan County.
07-13-2012 10:35 AM
Hobbyfarmer my crop insurance man told me since the county to our south has been declared a disaster area we should also be since state lines shouldn't make a difference. Maybe our local FSA office is just a little behind. I have a high level of crop insurance but with my wife and I only being in our 5th year of farming a total wipeout of our crop would still put us in a pinch.
07-13-2012 10:35 AM - edited 07-13-2012 10:44 AM
No, nope, nadda thing.
07-13-2012 11:07 AM
Can't remember my main e-mail password to get into communication with a nieghbor or two, but the National weather service radar just showed a 1 1/2 tp 2'+ rain just "hit" South Podunk Country located at the end of the rainbow. Hope their estimated radar total is correct with no hail.
07-13-2012 11:11 AM
Aren't we getting to the point where rain isn't even going to help anymore, at least for corn?
Picked up .08" here in southwest Wisconsin this morning...first rainfall in 23 days.
Looking at the weather models, the Euro (0z run) gives a little relief next week, but keeps the cooker on across IA/IL...Ridge probably builds back in by next weekend.
07-13-2012 11:21 AM
Much of central Iowa last week was not anything like these picts that have been posted on this site. Today's rain if it wasn't with 80mph wind or hail will still allow the crop to be highly productive. My corn should just be tasseling right now.