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Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 991
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

[ Edited ]

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4-YEAR-HIGH! That's where soybeans are trading at right now, while nearby corn's at a 10-month high, as the market's attention to the drought conditions only sharpens. We're 19 cents higher on July corn, 6 1/2 cents shy of $7. July beans are at $15.08, up 33 1/4, and July wheat's at $8.09 3/4, up 10 1/2. 

 

Odd how this favorable jobs study released this morning has had the opposite effect it would on the equities and stocks, which are trending lower, as are the energies and metals. Here's a little more on that. 

 

How hot's it going to get at your place today? They're talking a heat index of 110 here in central Iowa today. Ugh!

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Well, good morning, everybody. Better late than never, right? I'm sure most of you have heard, but if not, Marketeye's out with a couple of new little traders over in Chicago this morning -- his twin boys that were born yesterday morning. Everybody's happy and healthy and Marketeye's already getting accustomed to changing diapers!

 

So, it's still hot and dry out there. And, the markets are expected to see double-digit gains today as a result. I'm running out of ways to tell that story because we've been telling the exact same one, it seems like, forever!

 

Look for gains in the 20s for corn, beans and wheat today.

 

There is at least one non-drought story today: A report was released this morning that shows better-than-expected private-sector hiring in the last month, which may be a precursor to a better monthly jobs report from the government tomorrow. While it's good news, it may put a potential QE3 in question, so early response by the markets has been less than stellar.

 

So, we're off for another higher day in the grains today. Hold on to your hats while the B-team tries to make sense of it all and Marketeye is busy changing diapers!

More in a few...

Jeff

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

Today, it is supposed to be 99-101 temperature, and 105-115 heat index.  Last week, McCook, NE, had 115 actual temperature, and something like 118 heat index.

If we can pump enough water on the crops, and pollenation holds out until the cooler weather gets here, early next week, things might turn out OK.  I kind of gave up on rain until mid-month, the forcasts give us at most 20% in the 7 day outlook.

Talked to one guy today, who said that he has had less than 2 inches worth of precip, since Jan 1st, and a half inch since March 1st.

Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

A question for you guys with pivots. In this dry heat does your corn start to curl before the pivot makes it back to the starting point?
Veteran Contributor
toughguy189
Posts: 82
Registered: ‎12-20-2011
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

Talked to a neighbor who said he had run 3 circles puting on .70" each time, he went out and dug to see how deep the moisture was and found it to be only about the top 3 inches.   So, i would guess that he is only keeping up with the watering at the rate he is going.  Dad likes to run the pivot at a slow rate so that we put on about 3" at a time, it take a little longer, but the corn's roots are down and its so dry that we don't have any runoff.

 

The dryland pivot corners here in Central NE are anywhere from curled to burning up.


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Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

A lot depends on how the pivot is set up.  Some of the older ones, or ones with slower water supplies, have tried to irrigate a full quarter (average pivot gets around 130-135 acres of the 160) going with 600 GPM.   This is barely adequate to keep up with crop use, and yes, if there is a lot of heat, and no rain to help, the corn can curl before it gets back around.
Mine is set up with bigger nozzles, and an 800 GPM pump.  I have been able to shut off for 12 hours every circle, or when oil change is needed, and am keeping up so far.  When early ear fill kicks in, I may have to shut off only long enough to get the oil changed, and go again, to keep up if this heat keeps up with no rain.  So to answer your question, it kind of depends on how the pivot is set up.

Contributor
"Jury Duty"
Posts: 13
Registered: ‎05-24-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

We have not shut wells down since the end of May. As long as you have no breakdowns you can just make a round before it starts curling. Ours are set up so you can make a circle in 48 hours and that puts on just short of 3/4 of an inch depending on your well. Anything less than an inch of rain, we just keep irrigating as that will help catch the soil back up. 

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

Sprinklers will fix dry if the gallons are there, as Nebr says.  But no amount of water will save it from heat scald if it stays hot long enough.  Sands and lighter soils tolerate less heat than dark soils.  Faster sprinklers help cool it better on light soils but eventually the battle over heat will be lost.  If the problem is drought only then 750 gallon + can handle it if the nights are cool.

 

sw
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

butttttttt-------------expensive and most all water is limited by regulation.

sw
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Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

I was going to say, there are a few irrigation districts, down South of me, where they are being told they only have 2-3 inches of water left, and to use it wisely.


When we got our irrigation set up, back before my time, we got water rights to so many acres, but have no limits to how much I can put on.  However, we dare not irrigate anything 'extra', so things look kind of funny here.  I have an irrigated corn field, that looks very nice considering the heat, but right next to it, is a hay field, that has only a little green sprig here, and there, maybe a couple hundred pounds of  harvestable regrowth in a 15 acre field, all in a little 3 foot wide strip next to the corn.

 

If the corn is heat stressed, and tasseling, I have been told, and tend to belive that if you run the pivot quickly, to just 'wet' things down, and cool them off, it will aid pollenation at least somewhat.  I can belive that, because the air coming off the field behind the pivot always feels cool and damp compared to the hot dry wind.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: B-Team Report for Thursday's grain trade

Right Nebr,

And if you have very good subsoil moisture you will get by with it.  But if you are low on subsoil and speed it up to cool the plant the evaporation goes up and you get no penetration for that week with the water you are applying.  Thus 2 half inch passes do not equal 1 one inch pass(twice the evaporation).  

We can't get by with it because we are more likely to stay dry the rest of July.  If you got some help coming in the form of a rain you will be ok.  You just have to judge your odds.

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I will say it for you-------the courts and legislatures are making very foolish decisions over the use of groundwater.  To the betterment of no one.  Penalizing the region with the best supply in the aquifer, forcing them to pump water for surface flow and restricting the use on crops in drought years.  2-3 more inches is 8-12 days .  They will throw away lots of production if things don't change soon.

sw