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Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 991
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

[ Edited ]
A couple interesting reads from one of our contributors that I just got up on the site. First, a bit on the likelihood of more soybean acres here next year. Sounds like more beans. Are you doing it? 

One big hitch in that plan, though, is whether or not you can make as much money planting more beans. Here's a little on that. At this point, could you make it work? Or, will you keep after the same acreage mix or even more corn? 

Man, the dogs are really howlin' on the CME Floor now. March corn is about the same -- just 2 3/4 lower -- and January beans are 8 1/2 lower, but March wheat's really turned south compared to earlier, to the tune of 7 1/4 cents lower at $8.53 1/2 per bushel. Whew...blame the B-Team, I guess!
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Right or wrong, this is going to make a lot of folks in the driest parts of the countryside jealous! Our crops technology editor Gil Gullickson went back to his family's home farm in South Dakota the other day to see that it's still way on the damp side. A problem not a whole lot of folks are having right now! 

The losses are sharpening in the grains: March corn's 3 3/4 lower, January beans are 9 1/4 lower and March wheat's 5 1/4 lower. Looks like it could be downhill sledding all the way to the close. 


Calling all smart money: Of the global factors we've been talking about the last few days -- too wet in Argentina, too dry everwhere else, namely -- which one do you think will be the one that thrusts its head up and causes the next big move in prices? Will it be the issues in South America or will something else come along and stoke things up?

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I guess the bull's not getting fed today, and that's got things in the corn and bean pits sagging. March corn's 2 1/2 lower and January beans are 5 lower. Wheat's holding on by the skin of its teeth, at 1/2 cent higher. But, looks like it's going to follow 'em down. 
 Sounds like there's just not enough fresh news for soybeans to keep the bulls fed and sustain the gains from yesterday and overnight. Argentina's already factored in and it sounds like it could take a heck of a lot more on top of the current situation there to add to the support its already lent to the grains.
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So, this wire story tells us that we're in for a choppy, mixed day, and that these prices are essentially range-bound because demand will come and go and kick in when prices get too low. So, is that going to remain the story for a while? 
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What do I owe you for the scoop, Ray?! Just found some info from the Serbian ag ministry and wrote up a quick story here

Sounds like they're being a tad defensive, and that maybe there was some previous reporting on the situation that ruffled some feathers. But, it sounds like the drought did a number on them there, too -- cut their crop by almost half. Saw one report that shows their output will be about 3.5 or 3.6 million metric tons. So, Ray, is this enough of a supply cut, in the global grand scheme of things, to make a difference to the supply/demand picture as a whole? 

 Wow, aflatoxin's really become the latest 4-letter word out there, hasn't it? 

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Good morning, everybody. What's the big news out in everybody's neck of the woods this morning? It's felt more like May than December around central Iowa here. It's nuts! Now if we could just squeeze a raindrop or 2 out...

 

At any rate, it almost feels like the grains are fighting and clawing to hold on to gains from yesterday as we head into the late stretches of the overnight session and into open outcry this morning. A couple minutes ago, the March corn futures contract was 1 1/2 cents higher at $7.56 1/4 while January soybeans -- also 1 1/2 cents higher -- were at $14.55 1/4 per bushel. March wheat was 4 cents higher at $8.64 3/4 per bushel. So, it sounds like early calls are corn unchanged to 2 cents lower, soybeans 1-3 cents lower and wheat 1-3 cents higher. What do you think will happen today? 

 

A couple of news notes here to start the day: A firm in Taiwan has cancelled a 60,000-metric-ton order of U.S. soybeans, citing high prices. Demand appears to be slowing for EU wheat, which analysts say could last through the year-end holidays. Finally, another report shows new expectations for record-high corn plantings in the U.S. next spring. Think that will happen? 

 

Hey, time to grab some coffee and get after it. More in a few! Have a good 'n' today!

 

JC

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 687
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

How about that Serbian aflatoxin story that floated out on Saturday, but didn't get any more coverage after that??

 

Here is your chance for scoopage, Jeff!!

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,065
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

Just read the record high planting article --- my question is when did we switch to hectares ?

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

Wouldn't the bigger part of that story be their production was cut in half..........and then what they have left is junk?????
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,065
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

As Jeff said - Taiwan passed on the beans -citing to high .  lowest offer was made by Agrex was U.S. beans -shipment - jan 16-30 from gulf of mexico around 2.53 over may futures on CBT

 

AlsoTaiwan brought 60,000 of Brazilian corn shipment jan1--15 , they brought it at 1.09 a bu. over CH CBT

 

 

offers from U.S. was at 1.74 over CH

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,213
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

I think you will find your country adopted the metric system a long time ago, well over 100 years.

The problem has been the long time spent using the old system for so many things which leads to errors in calculating things.

Don't think things are a mess with 2 systems then why are football fields measured in feet or yards but foot races are run on tricks measured in metres?

Then there are the 2 different gallons, 2 or 3 different sized bushel's, fortunately though when people say bushel they really mean 60 lbs or 56lbs or 48 lbs or 37 lbs. but then of course a tonne is still a tonne or 1,000 kilograms even if you like to make things difficult and redundant by calling 1,000 kgs a 'metric ton(ne)'

The sooner everything is in hectares and other metric measure the sooner things will be more efficient and less likely for errors in converting.

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 991
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

But, check this out, ECIN: According to a wire report just across a couple minutes ago, it says though we're probably headed for a mixed, choppy day today, "increased buying interest from global end users on price weakness limit losses to keep markets trading range bound," one firm said this morning. 

 

So, are these trading partners starting to act like jilted lover/drama queens and turning up their noses at any price move, or is it a legitimate new fundamental to these grains? Just seems like these global trading partners are almost playing the market and shifting their buys more with each price fluctuation more than they ever have. Or, am I just short-sighted? 

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

Yep......I heard that back in the 60s.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 687
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

Well, MT

 

It was reported on August 30 that the Serbian corn crop was going to be cut in half....so no "new news" in this report regarding the size of the crop

 

Junk?? How do you define that based on the news story?? I sure didn't see any aflo levels quoted, but maybe I missed something...

 

You want to be careful reading too much into these kind of reports.....sometimes they are promoted by the folks who stand to make money off the situation---like a company selling aflo testing kits and services.....

 

Ray J

Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 991
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: B-Team Report for Tuesday, Dec. 4

Good point, Ray. And, in the Serbian ag ministry's statement (or the translation I read), they came across as mighty defensive. They must know there's a lot of greenbacks hanging on the development of a story like that one.

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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