07-17-2012 08:30 AM - edited 07-17-2012 03:09 PM
Just checked out our social network site for young & beginning farmers, Farmersforthefuture.com, and here's a posting from a farmer in southwest Ohio: 'Raising Corn in Hell.' Anybody else have similar experience with crop insurance?
The grains are all lower across the board, but just dipping into the red on profit-taking and no real fresh news besides the drought. Not a whole lot of news on the grains here today. Sort of a slow news day aside from the fact that it's 100 degrees outside!
Sounds like the big news of the day is in the livestock sector. It's safe to say herd liquidation's underway in both hogs and cattle, and those markets are showing it. Cattle and hogs are both lower, and there are signs that producers are taking liquidation fairly seriously. Here's more on that.
Looks like we're going to spend today maybe floating around on either side of zero. Corn's slightly higher -- 6 cents up for nearby at $7.78 1/2 -- while nearby beans are 3/4 cent higher at $15.91 1/4 and wheat's 1 1/2 higher at $8.86. Just seems to be sort of chopping around.
Just not much of any fresh news here today for corn and beans besides the drought. Traders have taken their profits from yesterday, it looks like, but things have yet to snap back to the rally from the last few days.
But, here's a bit on the wheat front. Wheat's just sort of been following in lock-step with corn lately, but that could change down the road. Drought's shortening some other regions' crops, and with corn being so expensive right now for the livestock guys, there may be some fresh wheat demand for feed. So, it may have some upside of its own to ride on. Here's a little more on that.
A little bit from John Roach's morning email just across my inbox:
"We think it makes sense to dribble out a few bushels of the 2013 crop...Keep an eye on 2013 crop prices and be willing to pull the trigger on a few bushels on strength. Selling a few bushels of next year’s crop now and on each of the next few Sell Signals will get you a small base of sales at good prices for next year’s crops. The idea of selling some of next year’s crop scares most people, but to make next year’s beginning sales at the best prices in 2 years is a good thing."
So, who's doing it?
Well, it's "Turnaround Tuesday," or at least to start, and that's not the best for the bulls. Traders are taking their profits from yesterday's sharply higher prices, sending soybeans slightly lower and trimming gains in corn and wheat to barely higher (at least compared to the last couple weeks!).
Nearby corn's 5 1/4 higher, soybeans are 3/4 cent lower and wheat's 2 cents higher. Just like before, I'm sure I sound like a broken record. Drought's got the trade worried, so there's still a ton of upside potential, but traders are just taking profits here while they can. So, we may not see $8 corn today, but it sounds like that's not exactly out of the cards.
Interesting to see some talk of whether or not there's been a top made. Good conversation building over here. What do you think? Any semblance of a top out there, or do you think we'll still keep moving on up?
Going to be about 100 here in Des Moines today, with "tropical" humidity. Ouch!
07-17-2012 08:53 AM - edited 07-17-2012 08:54 AM
Just got back from the successful farmer tour of Iceland and they are in a drought over there too.
The "crop tour" down I35 yesterday from Minn e sota was a drive through a lot of good to excellent crops (especially for this year).
Went up the 6th and came home yesterday The crops south of Albert Lee, Minn. were still looking very good for the year but were showing areas of moisture stress that weren't there 10 days ago. NOT the disaster that Ill, Ind. and most southern boys are having.
Still this weather is shaving bu's off the record crop forecasted by the Corn College boys not so long ago. I believe we are in the same boat Brazil and Argintina were just in (many still there). 120 may not even be attainable as a NATIONAL average with another week of this. The big boys may have already sold ALL that will be available from this crop. It is getting smaller by the hour.
The livestock guy here in this country is the "farmer class" with the nipple in the wringer. Short or non existant hay and pastures that are end of Aug conditions NOW. Then add the current grain prices in and they are in a state of KAPOOT.
07-17-2012 09:00 AM
Good morning, Hobby. Man, that sounds like quite a trip up there. Pretty country?
I hear you on the livestock side of things. I think I probably mentioned it here yesterday too, but I talked to a young farmer from northeast Arkansas yesterday and he said that cattle guys are selling like crazy. Said their local sale barn typically runs about 400 head through the auction each week. But, in the last 2 weeks, one sale had 1,100 head and another had 1,400 head. A lot of young calves, too, so it sounds like folks are thinking this drought's going to have a "tail" a lot longer than just this fall/winter.