08-12-2013 11:20 AM - edited 08-12-2013 12:50 PM
Well, things shot up like a rocket after USDA's numbers and now it looks like they might be falling back to earth like that rocket was just a mule with a firecracker strapped to its rear end. What do you think?
Will we be playing scratch golf by the end of today's session?
Everybody remember to give Marketeye a hard time in a few days when he gets back in and remind him that it's my doin', not his, that sent these markets higher! Alright, it's USDA...so, what's everybody think? Is this the correction everybody was waiting for but not sure they'd ever make? Anybody got your broker on the horn right now?!
Had a quick chat with our friend Don Roose here about the data. It's a 'game-changer,' he thinks. May fuel upward momentum through to fall. Here's a little more from Don:
So, where do we go from here? Does the potential for a frost-nipped crop stay in the forefront?
08-12-2013 11:50 AM
I don't know if losing 2-300 million in corn production (that we never had anyways) is a reason for the market to go quickly higher.
08-12-2013 11:53 AM
NW IA, I tapped another trader about your question:
"Even though this report has its share of seemingly bullish surprises, the corn balance sheet will still be more than adequately replenished in the new crop year."
Sounds like folks are way more worried about the soybean pipeline than the one for corn. Think that's right?
08-12-2013 01:19 PM
I would say bean yields around here will not set the world on fire. Too many acres planted from June 18th through July 4th. If we get a frost/freeze event in September, the beans will be hit hard and the corn will also be hurt as a majority of it will not black layer until October 1st. We need the frost/freeze to hold off till mid October. With China's appetite for soybeans, they can clean us out rather quick, especially if we have a short crop.
08-12-2013 02:10 PM - edited 08-12-2013 02:10 PM
USDA's guess today was just that........a guess.
Soybeans are way too cheap......We are gonna need to keep those beans in the US for our domestic use. The only way to do that is to raise the price. Gonna have to ration these again.
The South American folks are watching this thing in the USA......Corn price dropping like a rock and a shrinking soybean supply here will lead to massive beans acres in SA and much lower corn acres.
Maybe some of our South American friends could weigh in on this?
08-12-2013 03:24 PM
The number that still looks wrong is the yield comparison of 2013 and 2012. It just doesn't look right to say that the difference between average corn yield in 2012 and 2013 will be only 31 bushels per acre.
It appears that 2012 is very optomistic on the report compared to how it looked and felt on the ground. ----------------- or abandoned acres are counted as harvested but left out of the yield averaging.
I did notice that carry out for 2012 got lowered a little and Exports got raised.------------ IMO we still could see exports throw a monkey wrench into a short supply-------- maybe shorter than we are willing to admit.
08-12-2013 04:07 PM
Soybean exports were lowered while it was announced today that this was the fifth largest soybean export sales day EVER.
Those guys had better start rationing soon.