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Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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B-Team's in & prices rocket

[ Edited ]

 

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At 11:48:

 

Well, things shot up like a rocket after USDA's numbers and now it looks like they might be falling back to earth like that rocket was just a mule with a firecracker strapped to its rear end. What do you think? 

 

http://www.agriculture.com/markets/analysis/corn/soybes-lead-postusda-charge_9-ar32912 

 

Will we be playing scratch golf by the end of today's session?

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Everybody remember to give Marketeye a hard time in a few days when he gets back in and remind him that it's my doin', not his, that sent these markets higher! Alright, it's USDA...so, what's everybody think? Is this the correction everybody was waiting for but not sure they'd ever make? Anybody got your broker on the horn right now?!

 

Had a quick chat with our friend Don Roose here about the data. It's a 'game-changer,' he thinks. May fuel upward momentum through to fall. Here's a little more from Don:

 

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/usda-feeds-bulls-trims-grain-output_2-ar32911

 

So, where do we go from here? Does the potential for a frost-nipped crop stay in the forefront? 

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Frequent Contributor
NW IA
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

Markets are not exploding like i thought.  Is this the calm before the storm?  Soybeans have a nice little rally going but corn seems to be lagging.  Why?

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,429
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

I don't know if losing 2-300 million in corn production (that we never had anyways) is a reason for the market to go quickly higher.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 946
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

NW IA, I tapped another trader about your question:

"Even though this report has its share of seemingly bullish surprises, the corn balance sheet will still be more than adequately replenished in the new crop year." 

 

Sounds like folks are way more worried about the soybean pipeline than the one for corn. Think that's right? 

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Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture.com Multimedia Editor
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Frequent Contributor
NW IA
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
0

Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

I would say bean yields around here will not set the world on fire.  Too many acres planted from June 18th through July 4th.  If we get a frost/freeze event in September, the beans will be hit hard and the corn will also be hurt as a majority of it will not black layer until October 1st.  We need the frost/freeze to hold off till mid October. With China's appetite for soybeans, they can clean us out rather quick, especially if we have a short crop.

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 9,809
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

The report is right on the money for today. But then the reports are always a work in progress.

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roarintiger1
Posts: 1,429
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

[ Edited ]

USDA's guess today was just that........a guess.

 

Soybeans are way too cheap......We are gonna need to keep those beans in the US for our domestic use.  The only way to do that is to raise the price. Gonna have to ration these again.

 

The South American folks are watching this thing in the USA......Corn price dropping like a rock and a shrinking soybean supply here will lead to massive beans acres in SA and much lower corn acres.

 

Maybe some of our South American friends could weigh in on this?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,012
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

The number that still looks wrong is the yield comparison of 2013 and 2012.  It just doesn't look right to say that the difference between average corn yield in 2012 and 2013 will be only 31 bushels per acre.  

It appears that 2012 is very optomistic on the report compared to how it looked and felt on the ground.  ----------------- or abandoned acres are counted as harvested but left out of the yield averaging.

I did notice that carry out for 2012 got lowered a little and Exports got raised.------------ IMO we still could see exports throw a monkey wrench into a short supply-------- maybe shorter than we are willing to admit.  :smileyhappy:

sw
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sw363535
Posts: 4,012
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

Not exactly a rocket but at least not a fizzle.

 

Also noticed that bean exports got trimmed back this year and next to hold on to a little carry out.

sw
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roarintiger1
Posts: 1,429
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: B-Team's in & prices rocket

Soybean exports were lowered while it was announced today that this was the fifth largest soybean export sales day EVER.

 

Those guys had better start rationing soon.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"