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01-29-2013 02:26 PM
I have been sitting on alot of my 2012 corn crop, I am thinking of starting to sell alot of it now, I just can't see corn doing much more in the immediate future. I can get $7.50 at the local ethanol plant which is not bad I don't think. Any thoughts on this? Thanks!!!!
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01-29-2013 02:32 PM
I want to know what changed your mind......you were the guy who said that north central Iowa was 500 myn bushels short and basis was going to +200 the May....and there was an insatiable appetite for corn in NC Iowa...
now, if you finally figured out your profit is in the 99th percentile and there are better ways to manage risk, then I commend you...
otherwise, I want to know what happened to shift your thoughts.....
01-29-2013 02:45 PM
Ray- good questions, guess I am getting impatient, the corn market isn't doing much and I need a little money. I could get by with just a 10% sale and that would satisfy my need for cash. Guess I need to give the market more time is all. It is hard to hold corn at $7.50, I don't know, maybe I should give the market more time. Just thought I would throw this out for any thoughts.
01-29-2013 02:46 PM
if you can gut out the consolodation a few more days (Feb break) mkt is strong.
....in fact, i will decide by morning whether to bail on my short term SHORT in corn..basis prompt futures, we may not be able to sell down 10 more cents--------again i'm talking really short term.
01-29-2013 03:00 PM
Thanks guys, I can hold on without the cash for another 30 days or so. I think it would be a little better to sell 30 days from now, I hope!!!!!!!!!! Just a few bills to pay, but nothing serious. I will hold on for another month or so and maybe the market will be stronger. Just needed some courage that it is a good choice to wait on the corn sales is all. I am still bullish long-term on corn.
01-29-2013 03:01 PM
With complete respect, feeling impatient is you not the mkt, is taht a good resson to sell?
My ole saw is scale it out trying to NOT be a hero.
Tough mkt, we broke fm the highs but not that much, if we gets hints of rough WX for 2013, old crop witl jump
Might it be an idea, sell 30%, look to sell 30% in the sesaonal good period of late March , risk saving 20% into late June.
On th other 30, buy OTM puts, sell equally OTM calls and accept th outcome, you might gain 60 vs risking 35.
Regards, good wishes in your decision making..
01-29-2013 03:12 PM
Yes, you are entirely right, I am the impatient person, not the market. I need to get away from that feeling. I think you guys have pointed out that I am the impatient person and that is the wrong way to sell corn. I will wait for now on my corn sales. I agree that I am just getting impatient is all, probably like many of us that are still sitting on alot of 2012 corn. We just need to relax is all. I will relax for now and not rush into a corn sale that I don't feel good about. Thanks for listening to my ramblings, just needed some courage is all.
01-29-2013 03:35 PM
WCMO- Only 1/2 wrong, I like that thinking!!!!!! LOL
Yes, it is not the end of the world if we rush in and make some corn sales now, $7.50 at the local ethanol plant now is nothing to be ashamed about. I am going to hold out for another 30 days or so and see what develops. I was just getting impatient is all, and I had mentioned, being impatient is not the way to make good marketing decisions, at least for me. But I do like your only 1/2 wrong decision though!!!!! Pretty darn funny!!!!!
01-29-2013 05:00 PM
$7.50 for 56 lbs is almost $300/t.
Price in Ontario is $30/t less than that since we have the cheapest corn in North America this year.
I know I can not hit the top of the market with it all so I sell in increments.
Sold some last summer for harvest delivery at just over $300/t now have that memory which makes it hard to sell more.
So I finally took another 'bite' last Friday because I thought this latest rally seemed to be getting tired and got $260and change.
Tonight it is 262 and change.
But I am still only 25-30% sold so will continue to dole out small increments any time I feel it is right. I will not hold out too long when the prices are still profitable.
I have sold lots of corn through the years at much lower prices.