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Senior Contributor
Posts: 791
Registered: ‎11-20-2016
0

Be Prepared

December corn is at $4 and new crop beans at $10 and these should be profitable sales goals for most producers. Position yourselves so that you are not crying at this time next year because you are selling $8 soybeans and $3 corn and not meeting your margins.

 

My two cents.

Advisor
Posts: 850
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Be Prepared

All the logic, analysts and everything is on your side.  I've sold some Sep beans because I'm hoping they act like old/new crop and have offers in on new crop corn and soybeans.

 

At the same time, I missed part of the big run-up last summer so I'm a little gun shy of getting too bullish.  It's the way it is every year for me.  I have a history of selling earlier than most and sometimes that is good and sometimes it costs me money.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Be Prepared

[ Edited ]

What on earth supports profitability at $4 corn?  No land cost,,, no tax cost, no insurance cost,,,  Your land does not need fertilizer?  No equipment replacement cost?  Labor is dirt cheap??

 

Or you don't figure labor is worth anything?  

 

If your talking about getting your debt paid then sell out and retire, then maybe it will cash flow?

 

 Not much has changed since $4.50+ was breakeven ........ fertilizer a little down but steel, fuel, and labor(including insurance) will be up.

 

at 10$ beans and 4$ corn ....... beans are still showing less loss....but neither is impressive.  

 

Profits are made controlling costs,  That hasn't improved at all.

 

But I don't dissagree with it being a place to start with a thought of limiting loss...

 

 

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,780
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Be Prepared

New crop bids
Milo. 3.04
Corn 3.39
Soybeans. 9.45
Wheat. 4.00

Excuse me if I dont start to jump up and down
Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,254
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Be Prepared

Locking in a " limited loss" is still the road to a different career

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,254
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Be Prepared

 
Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,254
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Be Prepared

Here's something from the man who said be a farmer and drive a Lamborghini just a few years ago..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-11/jim-rogers-were-about-have-worst-economic-problems-lifetime...
Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,254
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Be Prepared

Problem is many bought the green and yellow painted versions on those easy payment plans. Profitability failed to show up the third year.

There are many ol timers out there still farming and paying income tax. Their numbers decrease every year.

I'm just enough of a betting fellow to place my bet that Jim Mead's new tractor is not in danger of ever being repo ed.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,254
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Be Prepared

Another way to look at locking in even a small loss is it is exactly the same as paying someone to let you work for them

Come to work for me, I'll let you work for free. .
Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Be Prepared

I can't dissagree with him much, even though he falls head first on the pesomistic side.

 

One thing he does not mention, is the insanity of the socialist party in the US.... They will push conflict and applaud when there is gunfire.  That has been the comunist avenue to power for many decades world wide if they can't get it any other way.

 

The democratic candidate for President, former President, and the state department did an amazing job of playing down the US involvement is Ukraine and covering for Nuland's embarassing call out by Russia, followed by personal appologies to most of the EU countries.  Notice how she stayed in the State Department until Trump was elected then quietly resigned as the anti Russia cannons were fired by nearly every media outlet.  Trump is just more honest than we are used to.  Our hands are not clean...