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Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,827
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Bearish production =

Bullish market????????  

 

The forever bears seem to assume as much.  And feel the need for the "go for the throat" style of "I told you so".  This could be those of us who "feel" a need to lock in a profit pre harvest or whenever a reasonable profit position exists.  This aproach has served many of us well at various times over the years.  Especially in times when Risk Management is a key to the future.

 

After two short years of production-------- it is easy to make the mistake of declaring the production stresser a market bull, but I do not think  that production problems always translate to bullish markets and especially not quickly.  But in hindsite the market always does recognize production problems in it's own time.

 

I do not  think it is wise to assume those who are observing big production problems are bullish the market.  I think those folks are "assuming the position"----------- of taking a beating in production and possibly being thumped again by the market if the production problems are too localized.  So----------- kick away if you live on short term thrills, but if you want your opinion to be respected think a bit more.

Us guys on the fringe are the guys who ice the production cake.  When the cake is small we make it look bigger.  When we can't seem to produce any icing, you guys in the belt build such a big cake that no one cares if the icing is missing.  Assuming the position is not fun, even for those with more experience.

sw
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,137
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Bearish production =

I think you make a good point, SW.  People generally talk and vote their pocketbook, for the life of me, I can`t imagine someone that raises and markets corn beans and wheat would actually argue against high prices.  Maybe someone has nice crops and wants to give an honest assessment of what is "in their backyard" but to actually flame someone who is bullish, is insane. There are 3 possiblities #1 they don`t produce grain, but rather buy grain.  #2 they are doing an academic exercise to be exposed to the opposite side  #3 They got beared up and sold too soon and want others in the same boat.

 

There are production problems out here, maybe it won`t translate into higher prices, but it seems that 2 months ago the only things bears hung their hat on was "above trend yields and 97 million corn acres, corn with a 3 in front",  that bird has flown.  The next rung is "92 million acres is adequate, 152 bushel will be enough for a 1.5B carryover".  Time`ll tell.

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Bearish production =

You left one out!  Those of us that listened to the super bulls too many times and harvested too many sharp declines. So we are telling the more vulnerable to be very very careful. Some time these super bulls speak with forked tongue and really don't have as accurate of a handle on the future as they might think they do.

 

Do I really need another dollar bid on my soybeans when there are already $15 offered? How much would I risk to earn that buck? How about If that youngster that was on the edge and didn't have your zillion dollar bank roll.

 

I think betting against the USDA is sort of like betting against the casino. The odds are probably on their side.

 

What good would it do me to sell my beans at $10 and want you to share my misery?  I would rather you hung on and took $6, Not really but i would rather you held yours off the market intil I got more sold.

 

One thing I have to credit you for. You have amazing skills to explain peoples motivations without any personal contact with them. And expecting anyone to be able to talk down the market would require  an amazing feat.

Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,137
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Bearish production =

So Don, you lost money listening to a super bull???  When in 2005?:smileyvery-happy:  

 

A few years ago advisor Mark Gold was hawking business and what he said was the cold hard truth, but some are too polite to admit, he said "farmers tell me why should I hire you to get me in the top 1/3rd maket, I`m making money with $9 beans?  Well if you sell for $9 and your neighbor sells for $13, who`s going to be renting the land in the neighborhood???".   I understand that can cut both ways, but it hasn`t, has it?

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Bearish production =

Gold's problem is that in the last 3-4 years, he was the one selling beans for $9........................It can work either way.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,137
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Bearish production =

Yes Roarin, I`m in no way endorsing Mark Gold, but there was a time when he was a bit of a realist and a bull.  He can probably get you in the "Top 1/3rd" but you`ll pay the holy grail for options that expire worthlessly to do it.  Doing "nothing" and selling hot off the combine has been awfully hard to beat, kind of like trying to beat the Dow Jones Index.  I don`t know what happens with some of these advisors, if they are so steeped in the marketing atmosphere of 10yrs ago or if they have too many clients that seek advice on buying grain, it`s hard to serve 2 masters.

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Bearish production =

BA,  Well said!

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,827
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Bearish production =

Your right Kraft,

 

The strong "human" tendancy we all posess.  We all want to take the facts reported and rush to the our own conclusion. (even when reporting facts, we want to find the conclusion)----- Hoping we will get there before everyone else.

---------------------------------

Super bull---- or super anything else.---------------- I coached a little for kids ------------- The folks who chear the loudest are the same folks who boooo the loudest.   I think the super bull and the super bear are often the same.  Just folks who have a big need to be "absolutely" right.

--------------------------------

Sorry Kraft but I am not a zero sum guy----- I think the market is dynamic enough that we can all sell our beans at a good profit.  But I am not foolish enough to deny the competition between us all.

-------------------------------

I like to poke you in the rib, and I disagree often, but I always read your stuff. ------------ that's as close to a complement as your gonna get.  :smileyhappy:

sw
Veteran Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,790
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

I think it was my fault

I remember posting that there was a case for soybeans going to $20, $30 or more, and corn to waltz right past $10....all the while I was taking the $8 corn and $17 soybean prices myself.

 

Just because I thought there was a case for higher prices didn't mean I was greedy enough to wait for them!

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,137
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: I think it was my fault

[ Edited ]

My beef with the bears is they come out with the **bleep** and bull about "$4 corn" to scare producers into selling in January, the minute you sell alot, early you then become a "bear" to make yourself feel better about your decision. 

 

The time in my life that I was usually bearish was when i fed all the corn I raised and when I was young and dumb enough that I still wanted to "farm the world".  Like a old west gunfighter that needed a "edge" of having the sun in your oppontent`s eyes, i figured "cheap corn" was my edge. I would listen to Ken Root interview Bill Beiderman(always a Allendale bear) on the fender mount radio while cultivating with my old open station Oliver and eat up the bear talk with a spoon. 

 

But now I`m old, suffering from low "T", not wanting to farm the world :smileyhappy:  Being better established, I want the status quo of these great prices to continue or I might have to get a part-time job and work for a living :smileyhappy:   But people do talk their book, I`ve been a bear and that was a good time to be a bear, corn was $1.80, hogs were $48 and my "T" was considerably higher.   so, I do know what makes a bear tick. 

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"