05-11-2012 10:37 AM
The market may not know this yet, but looking at the weather reports today including Freeze-Notis it appears we are in the early stages of a developing weather market in the south and midwest.
05-11-2012 01:41 PM
Odd out here but to Moi, once spring is upon us everyday grains are a weather market. Yes, commonly the lingo implies a bull weather market, but good crop development is weather induced as well. Every year there are colder/warmer periods and each is not the auto beginning of a period of good or poor weather.
Objectively, we are off to a speedy start, crop development is way ahead of norms, unless/until something comes to foil that, harvest expectations will likely rise. Not as sure about beans but as of 5/11 in my book, corn, is at an above trend yield position. Actually USDA is there as well.
From here, odds will shift as info/data roll in.
BTW, Why is the USDA projecting a 1 B use increase in corn for feeding for 12/13?
05-12-2012 02:30 AM
The problem Artie is lack of subsoil moisture. I've been warning about this. A crop can look great one day and be dead three days later when subsoil moisture doesn't exist and a good crop exhausts the topsoil moisture. Yes, it is restricted at the moment to the Southern Plains. A hail storm is quicker but, suddenly running out of moisture due to deficiency in the subsoils is very quick. When it happens - it's over. Subsequent rains won't change anything.
There are reports of dryland corn dying in Kansas already. The next heat spell will prove which areas can make it and which can't.
05-12-2012 03:05 AM
The tour in Ks is always a little early to be accurate.
Sw ks was reported in trouble on the tour. That would be the half of the dryland that made it to spring.
We look better than 2011---a total 0--------- but better dryland now is turning color with 1/2 to 2/3 seed fill. That is something I have never seen before. Can't be good, but we are still riding the effects of last years microwave drought. we have had several small and timely rains to get it this far ( 4 inches total since sept 1) but finishing amazingly fast. Irrigated is slowing down and acting like it is going to fill normally. It never stooled as much as normal but otherwise there will be some decent irrigated
05-12-2012 07:37 AM
Didn't you guys get the memo out of the USDA office? The corn crop is going to average 166bpa.......
05-12-2012 11:55 AM
In north central Iowa our soil profile was drier than usual. Even troublesome to say the least. Recently they have had several rains and planting has been delayed. I guess oursoil profile is pretty well saturated now.
We have heavy black soils that will retain alot of moisture if it rains. I thought the palouse would be much the same.
05-13-2012 10:24 AM
You are correct about the Palouse as it has fine and deep soil. We're good here except for an exceptionally late spring. The Palouse percip varies from 5" to 25" (where I am). Much of the Palouse is summer fallowed, whereas I crop every acre every year in a three year rotation. Winter wheat yields vary from 20 bu to 100+ bu/acre. We've never had a winter wheat crop failure.
I'm hearing that Nebraska has areas where dryland corn is under threat from no subsoil moisture as well so I assume there are more areas facing this sitiuation than talked about so far. The question being raised is whether the projected national yield figure can be accomplished if large areas if dryland corn fail, even if the yield on those acres is seldom very high. My perspective says this is a counter trend to the projections and not easily changed, or highly likely to. But, it's early yet.
05-13-2012 01:41 PM
20 – 110 bu. variance is a big range, especially to manage and especially market. Congrats for doing it so well.
*** A common error that probably costs errant marketers 1$ / yr is TREND is not PERFECT conditions, got it, Trend yields equals average conditions across the associated growing belt. Name a year where there we DID not have some weather, condition, disease, concerns – NEVER. Early and good condition planting for corn, why wouldn’t the best early guess be trend +? 166.
OK, HRW, some areas in the S SW belt is not doing well. The HRW belt is huge, semi -arid, a significant % doesn’t get harvested annually, let alone poor yield areas.
Reversion to the mean. If anything a dry period usher in a wet one, overtime temps/precip. Tend to average out. Yes, back to back can and will happen now and then, and low ES followed by another bad year make prices double fly. W of KW isn’t in a new era and going to center around 7 or8 or 9 $. I sure don’t know the #, maybe 4-5.50? vs 2.50 to 3.50 a few yrs back. Wheat is grown so widely and world ES are growing fast, the volatility is dropping fast vs ‘o7-’11. No one here likes to hear that. But if we want to talk in reality vs trying to latch onto any crop trouble anywhere I think it is healthy.
FWIW Agronomy, 1977 fall, long time ago, but crops don’t die in 3 days.
All comments and feedback welcome. TELL me where I am wrong.
05-13-2012 04:35 PM - edited 05-13-2012 04:36 PM
Artifice, You needed to be in our area on June 13, 2011. We watched irrigated corn turn white in three hours with 116 degree heat and 30+ mph south wind. Leaves were white by evening. Agronomy 2011.