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Advisor
Posts: 569
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Behavioral Bias And Marketing Grain

Behavior finance theorists claim to have experimental proof that most people tend to sell a profitable position before it reaches it's maximum and tend to hold a losing position after the best time to cut and run.

 

People avoid risk when they are ahead of the game.  They would rather accept some risk than admit they are behind if their position is a losing one.

 

What do you think?  Do you sell on a rise in price?  Or do you sit and watch prices go up and then start selling when prices go down?

 

If you have corn in the bin and prices are lower than you like, do you sit on it even if the chances are that it might get worse?  Or do you sell it to stop the bleeding?  According to the theory, many would sit on the corn and take a risk it would go even lower rather than take a losing price.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,015
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Behavioral Bias And Marketing Grain

I don`t know the exact correlation of getting bumped on your airplane flight and marketing grain, but I think there is one.   An expert was telling the mistakes that United made, first in letting the guy sit down in his seat and then dragging him off Smiley Very Happy   I`m sorry that shouldn`t be funny, but it kinda is.

 

See, if they are going to bump someone DON`T LET THEM SIT DOWN, bump them before they sit down, that`s kind of the same psychology as if you have grain sitting in the bin.   Then the advice is an overbooked airline shouldn`t announce on the intercom that they`re paying $800 to those giving up their seat, no one wants to come up and look like a sucker for accepting $800 when no one else is.   That`s kind of like you were hoping for $4.25 for new crop and it only goes up to $3.99 and you really get stubborn when it goes to $3.75....but you shouda sold it for that because you end up sticking it in the bin and giving it away for $3.25 next March after you stored it for 4 months, the enduser says "Thank you very much!".

Advisor
Posts: 569
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Behavioral Bias And Marketing Grain

United should have hired a small charter company to fly their crew.  When I was flying jets for charter, we several times flew airline personnel from one location to another for crew relief or maintenance.  It would probably have cost them about $10,000 and would not have caused any problems.  The crew didn't need to be in place until the next day.

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,114
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Behavioral Bias And Marketing Grain

I don't know if the grain theory is fact but certainly happens more than I want to admit....... because the overriding factor is profit..... and if there isn't any the outside option is to wait...... and if there is profit in the face of risk we tend to sell in spite of the trend....    WE not being u and me but traders in general.

 

But BA that is golden.....  great comparison...

 

Jim...   "United should have hired" ..... man that is the beginning to a lot of "shoulda" thoughts......      I avoid united when possible just because they are so notorious for overbooking.....

 

And as ofter as it happens how on earth does the ticket counter not know.  ----- Once the guy has been approved to go take his seat, it is his seat.   Hire folks at the ticket counter that can count.

Don't drag somebody out of their seat, drag the employee at the ticket counter down the concourse.

 

Passenger freight is all about Public relations and punctuallity.  How much you charge and who you charge is pretty simple math.   There must be profit in overbooking,,,, like maybe 10% of us get drunk and don't care because someone else paid for the flight, and never bother to show up.  Or we get there late after the flight is half way to altitude. (thinking about that one maybe the % is closer to 15 or 20%)

So much profit that United can afford the "cellphone" publicity of dragging a customer down the isle on national TV.

 

Smiley Happy    It makes me feel better about some of my "hiring" mistakes..