03-12-2013 10:36 AM
You're going to need several part-time jobs to keep the corn and soybean farm family fed, is the conclusion of FAPRI for the outlook over the next 10 years.
Here is a one page discussion which expands on the summary below. Do you agree that we are looking at hard times? One thing is clear to me - if your land is paid for you are in pretty good shape. If not, it might be challenging.
Projected corn and soybean production over the next ten years is expected to slowly increase with higher yields, but with marginally higher demand, farmgate prices will remain at levels which could be challenging for many farmers. Corn prices are forecast to average under $5 through 2022 and soybean prices are forecast to average under $12 for the same period. Net returns to labor and land over the ten year period may be less than what cash rents will average. That will leave insufficient amounts for family living expenses."
03-12-2013 11:37 AM - edited 03-12-2013 11:39 AM
The idea producers can 'profit' from futures is a dangerous idea. Can they limit risk for a cost (puts)? Yes. Can they risk it all in futures? Yes.
Can they 'profit' from futures? Show me the studies that give a breakdown on sucess/failure. And show me a pro advisor records for 5 years running that shows a clear advantage. Remember - one screw up can put a person behind enough to go down later.
03-12-2013 11:48 AM
36 minutes ago
another idea would be for farmers to better learn how to use futures for profiting?? That'd 'least keep the wife outta the equation.
an hour ago
I know you don't know me, but I was being honest (funny, perhaps). Just sayin' --- could a used some last couple years...the bills been gettin' pretty steep..." (you were refering to getting food stamps)
Playing in the markets working out real good for you too?
The richest farmers as a rule follow the "GBS" model.
(grow it, bin it, sell it)
03-12-2013 12:30 PM
Currently in North-Central Iowa, we have guys paying over $500/acre in cash rent for the 2013 crop year. This is very high quality farmland with a Corn Suitability Rating of 80+. It is 200+bu dirt and well tiled. $500/acre divided by 200bu= $2.50bu in land costs. The Iowa guy that has all his land paid for, his only land cost is 11 cents per bushel, a huge difference. Given current variable input COP (Cost of Production) a guy can raise a bushel of corn for around $2.80 a bushel, add in the 11 cent land cost ($23/acre in Property Tax) you are at $2.91 a bushel on a 200bu yield. You add in a $500/acre cash rent payment, that is $5.30 a bushel. If you are in the ACRE Program and the 2013 ACRE Target Price of $6.66 is correct, you will survive. If you are in the Direct/LDP Farm Program and in Iowa the LDP Target Price is currently $1.91 a bushel, well it will be a very rough year if corn goes to $4+ or less. Yes, you better prepare the wife to get a full-time job that also includes discounted Health Insurance. I believe my health insurance per year for a family of 5 is over $12,000/year, but not sure, the wife pays that bill out of her monthly household allowance I give her.
03-12-2013 12:43 PM
just trying to help....offer ideas....I'm amazed anyone pays these "pro advisors" who could stand to know a bit more about how to utilize the mkts.
i'm not sure why it's a dangerous idea Palouser...I don't believe it's ever wise to risk "it all" in anything.
hobby, my comments are not mutually exclusive...be careful of what you infer---just trying to have a little fun with "some" truth mixed in...are U sayin' you wouldn't like some of your grocery bill taken care of? I was also attempting to make the point that the system could use some overhauling....what's fair should be fair...not that it is.
i'm on y'alls team, gentlemen...and I hope you feel the same way.
originally, I was responding to Jim's post about the article on the farm business moving forward...offering another idea aside from sending the wife or other family member to work. I've learned a little from y'all that your costs can be quite high -- @ least low 6 figs even for a smallish operation.... the article was referring to thinning margins on the farming side.
I simply have an expertise (vast array of knowledge) just like y'all do on your part of grain business.
Yes, i know the futures side is kind of like an efficient weapon..playing or screwing around with it can be trouble (believing it's something it is not). It can also be weilded effectively (from what i've gathered - not just from y'all--very few know about the efficient/effective side).
I try to impart knowledge on here to help, not hurt.
03-12-2013 12:54 PM
CX1: I was not try to be mean, just copy and pasted what you posted. Have to be careful what you post cause I've noticed some on here actually read what is posted and remember.:smileywink:
There are more farmers that have had to pony up money than have recieved a check from the CBOT thing.
Most times it is another unneeded expense in the year it happens. Kind of like baseball, more strike outs than home runs.