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Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,320
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Better than expected

BUT ... 34 bushels worse than last year.

 

Which way yah all want to spin this?

 

That is the result so far in the corn fields @ the Hobbyfarm.

 

That alone based on last years sales = a $265.2 reduction per acre reduction in

 

Spending power. Then add in that $2.50/bu reduction in the price of what is being

 

Harvested and that = another farm purchase that will not happen next spring.

 

Kind of glad I'm not one of those dealers with a lot full of shinny new paint two rows deep.

 

 

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 198
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: Better than expected

Hobby wait on the price part of your equation.  Just this morning my neighbor informed me.  He wanted to get out of contract. Not because of price, but corn can be sold HM to dairy farmer. This area's corn is quite wet, in the 30's yet. The feed mill stated to him, we need your dry corn. But will let him out of the contract. I believe we will see some nice basis improvement. 

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 163
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: Better than expected

I guess you could spin it either way Hobby. Last year really doesn't matter. If you and the traders thought all summer long that you had 40 bu corn and it turned out to be 75 bu and everyone else experienced something similar, it implies a bigger crop than most were anticipating. That would seem to be bearish.
Senior Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,011
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Better than expected

[ Edited ]

But that was accounted for last spring.  A good crop or even a record crop has been "in the market" since last spring.  

It is a good crop.  The market has factored in a record crop.

 

Point now is which one would you rather own til bills come due next summer, more corn than last year or less cash than last year.

Which one has some upside potential?  And which one do you have the most control over?

 

Last year is very important and will be for some time -----------  improvements made in production as a result of those profits will be with us for a while, as well as damage done in cattle and drought areas.  Rebuilding losses take time as well.

 

The distruction of the middle class in farming continues.  And real farm numbers will go down again, just as sure as the inflation in equipment costs.

sw
Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,320
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Better than expected

Wow $685 per acre gross revenue on almost the same input costs  doesn't count?

 

Last year does not make a difference?

 

We live in different worlds.

 

I'm guessing more live in my world than yours.

 

Glad I put some away for this outcome.

 

I'll bet many did not or could not.

 

 Are you a congress-critter?

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
crophugger
Posts: 162
Registered: ‎01-12-2012
0

Re: Better than expected

A record crop that ma nature keeps chipping away at.
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 163
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: Better than expected

The market does not care what your yield was last year or what your gross was last year or this year. The market is only concerned with current supply and demand. Supply is going to far surpass demand. It is really that simple.
Senior Contributor
crophugger
Posts: 162
Registered: ‎01-12-2012
0

Re: Better than expected

Supply that is not in the bin just yet and there sure are a lot of beans to combine before the corn
Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 3,702
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Better than expected

Around these parts there is corn off already for the premium paid last week for corn immediatley, Think the moisture was around 30%.

 

We started yesterday at 25% to fill a dryer bin which will be fed on farm.

Neighbour is combining today and he was pushing custom operator to get there soon because he thought it was going to get too dry for his HM which I think he likes around 27-28%.

 

First indications are our yield will be about 1.5 t/ha better than last year which will put it a little better than 5 year average.

 

Ontario was the cheapest corn price in North America and it will remain so again this year with good yields and corn to export to set price.

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Veteran Contributor
farmerinontaro
Posts: 74
Registered: ‎11-15-2012
0

Re: Better than expected

Canuck 2, not everywhere in Ontario is that great.  First field of 92 day corn 148 bu/ac.  2nd field not done yet, but somewhere between 130-140.

 

Talked to a sales manager for one of the seed companies, he said it would not surprise him if the Ontario yeild came in at 140 bu/ac average!  Now that was a shock to me!  But after the first two fields for the early market.  I am not as shocked.

 

Lot corn ground hard hit by too much rain in Ont.  Also the drought area's like ourselves for the 2nd year in a row.

 

We will know soon!  Good luck with harvest.